“Although it is certainly possible that the drop will be bigger this time, what I’m hearing in the responses so far is just “this time it’s special,” with no strong basis for believing it.”
This boom was way bigger than the 80s boom… so why should the bust not be bigger than the post-80s bust? It seems like common sense; an assertion to the contrary requires backing. The second analysis you did makes more sense because it gets back to actual fundamentals as opposed to an arbitrary percent decline.
