Actually I have some familiarity with these, they will end up being priced around 200k when this shakes out, that was their pre-bubble price when they sold new (160 or 180 to 220, from memory). These are true townhouses, attached 2 car garages and the A and B units share very little wall space, mostly the garage walls. There isn’t much condo stock in the zip code, it’s probably less than 10% so the market shouldn’t beat these any more than the sfr market by %. People that bought resales in the mid to high 300’s are just screwed, but the rent is about 1500, give or take, so the 150x rent is 225k. The zip code contains california’s largest casino which has thousands of “rental demographic” jobs yet there are almost no apartments other than the new ones on 79S where rents are 1400-1800 for a dinky, stair climbing, carport, true apartment complex, so these are a somewhat safe sub 225k investment.
What will drive these down to the the low 200’s is the new D.R. horton condos at temecula lane in the 200’s and the unattached, condoesque, shared driveway or alley homes in Wolf Creek that are approaching the sub 300’s and are much nicer.
I don’t know what the suprise is, most of the market is on it’s way back to 2002 or 2003 prices, representing a 50% decline and fundamentally there is nothing that will stop it. In fact $100 a barrel oil will accelerate it for outlying suburbs or exurbs.
