A lot of people during the run-up had trouble figuring out San Diego because is bucked all the trends so I just want to know why 30% is all of a sudden the magical number.
A 30% decrease roughly corresponds to a 50% increase, e.g. 400K * 1.5 = 600K. 600K * 0.7 = 420K. The 50% increase is about what we saw between 2002 and the peak, and my guess is that we’re heading back to 2002 real prices within 5 years.
Again, my guess of 30% decline is in real value; nominal values will be a different story and dependent of course on inflation.