I think the chance of an Israel-Iran hot war this year is about 10%.
Similar risk of the Ukraine War spilling into Moldova. Already both sides are accusing each other of false flags and provocations. Russia occupies part of Moldova on the Ukraine border and it is physically isolated from Russia proper.
A Taiwan invasion by China would be a real disaster and cause an instant global depression. Maybe 3 to 5% chance this year?
I like Western Hemisphere focused oil stocks because they are cheap and benefit from a strong economy as well as geopolitical instability. While a long deflationary recession would be bad, OPEC cuts and extended underinvestment and production declines will mitigate the pain in such scenario.
