4plex – I think it does matter only b/c many bulls are cheering at the low inventory and if you get a naieve buyer wanting to tax advantage of the big tax break (18K), it wouldn’t be too hard to convince them. Inventory is down. Rates are low. Tax break. Then all you need to do is say the government/banks are going to re-work all those NODs. (ignore the man behind the curtain – pay no mind to the NODs in the background)
Personally, I think to ignore the NODs is putting your head in the sand. I do not think they are magically going away. Even more bullish would be to ignore the Alt-A/Option ARMs. We have yet to really contend w/that.