As soon as things turn around and Big Ass Mae gets around to strenghthing requirements for qualifying, lets say… verifiable income and debt to income ratio = < 30%. Then I will buy. Because at that time, I will qualify for a $250 - $350k 3 bedroom house in a nice neighborhood with excellent schools with 20% down and a 6-7% int 25 loan and pay what I can afford... around $2,500 (incl tax,insurance) per month (with an income over $100k). So I don't place a percentage on how far the market will fall, only what I see is realistic for working class families to afford. If that doesn't happen then I'll be renting the rest of my life.
I believe that's how far the market will fall. Graph that!