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peterb
14 years ago

Thanks Rich. Dont you also
Thanks Rich. Dont you also track sales volume by price level? Not sure for SD, but CA in general is seeing most of the sales volume at $350K and below.
It would be nice if CSI could use Zip codes.

I also wonder if SD has 12% of all its mortgages now in late payment status? And 20% of all its mortgages upside down, per the national numbers.

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Sales are always down in
Sales are always down in February…fewer days.

As much as inventory looks lower than the previous two years it is greatly overstated. I would estimate that at least 20 to 30% of the active inventory is short sales with offers already submitted to the lenders.

peterb
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Bring data.
Bring data.

NotCranky
14 years ago
Reply to  peterb

Whether a month has a few
Whether a month has a few more or less days is not a controlling factor in volume.Variations far exceed the range such a factor would allow for if it were dominant. Seasonality tends to have more effects, but even this gets blown away by other factors at times.

EJ
EJ
14 years ago

Gotta agree with sdr on this
Gotta agree with sdr on this one … Feb has 10% less days than Jan, this is significant enough to cause a drop in monthly volume.

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  EJ

The biggest point is the
The biggest point is the short sale statement.

I cannot understate how many of the active listings that are short sales are not really active. I would estimate at least 50% have offers and are either only taking backups or are pretty much taking up space until they hear back from the lender. Forget about the fact that the buyer may indeed back out and then they become true actives again. These really should be parsed out so that people can see the very real “active” inventory. Then once the listing agent hears back from the lender the property can go pending or it can become a real “active” again if the buyer has walked.

NotCranky
14 years ago
Reply to  EJ

EJ, It could have caused the
EJ, It could have caused the drop but it is not known to have caused the drop.It doesn’t “always” happen according to the number of days in successive months. Look at the chart above,” San Diego Resale Home Sales Volume”. It shows that volume can and does change drastically even in successive months with the same number of days or when the difference is only 1 day. So it is a factor but there are also others that could have been in favor of making Feb. stronger than January that did not prevail.

The short sale issue is nothing new. For the most part short sales earlier on were nearly hopeless so this is questionable as to being a significant factor in decreasing effective inventory.Many of these are not going to close even if they have “accepted” offers. It seems like we can’t assume that inventory is reduced by a factor of 30% compared to recent times for many reasons.

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  NotCranky

No it is not a correct
No it is not a correct statement to say that it does not decrease inventory.

Your client wants to go see a home and/or put an offer on it. You call the listing agent and the listing agent says, “you can either submit a backup offer, or we are not accepting any offers at this time.” This home then is not an active. Your client has one less home to choose from. This does reduce the inventory. This has stymied alot of my clients recently.

How about this, I challenge you to pick up the phone and call on some of these short sales and tell me what you find out. Pick say 10 or 20 of them and call on them. See what they say and come back with a percentage. The number I came up with is based on my experience because I have been doing nothing but calling on them for my clients.

Now I do indeed agree that many of them will not close for whatever reasons. Yet that still does not make them an active listing. If you cannot make an offer that will find it’s way to the lender then how can you consider that an active listing? They are not really active in the true sense of the word. They should not be marketted or considered active and they should be either in withdrawn or some to be created status.

Also I have a short sale that is closing in about 2 weeks and another was closed in November. I don’t feel they are hopeless but yes they are challenging.

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  SD Realtor

Rich
Last year they were

Rich
Last year they were neglible until the later half of the year at best. To put this into perspective, I’ve got about 10 short sale listings that show as active in Sandicor. 8 have offers and most have multiple offers. One that doesnt is new and the other is a mystery to me as to why it doesnt. Of the homes with offers, there is one that’s a longshot to close for reasons i cant get into but the others should easily. I got 5 new ones coming on in the next week or two. All of them are very sellable, will sit active for a couple months with multiple offers, be approved, go pending and evenetually sell to one of the buyers.

Russell
With all due respect, SD R and I are much more active in what is going on out there. How often do they let you out of Jamul anyway?;)

NotCranky
14 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

Last year they were neglible
Last year they were neglible until the later half of the year at best. To put this into perspective, I’ve got about 10 short sale listings that show as active in Sandicor. 8 have offers and most have multiple offers. One that doesnt is new and the other is a mystery to me as to why it doesnt. Of the homes with offers, there is one that’s a longshot to close for reasons i cant get into but the others should easily. I got 5 new ones coming on in the next week or two. All of them are very sellable, will sit active for a couple months with multiple offers, be approved, go pending and evenetually sell to one of the buyers.

Russell
With all due respect, SD R and I are much more active in what is going on out there. How often do they let you out of Jamul anyway?;)[/quote]

Amazing how easily you transition from anectdote to ad hominem,respect ;).Lather, rinse, repeat ;).

sdrealtor
14 years ago
Reply to  NotCranky

Russ
Dont know if that was

Russ
Dont know if that was serious or a jab but either are fine. I spend so much time thinking about these things. I find that whenever I take the time to pull out a slide rule and test my perceived beliefs my figures are very close to what I end up calculating. A bit of confirmation bias? Perhaps, but I dont make wild eyed guesses. The numbers I use anecdotally are based on considerable thought.

The only numbers I use that I would cast a sideways glance at are driving distances. To me any thing close is 5 minutes away whether it is 5 or 15 minutes. Drove my wife crazy but I’d bet lots of guys do this too.

sdr

peterb
14 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

20% to 30% in short sale
20% to 30% in short sale process seems like a huge statement to make about the whole county. But even if this is accurate, how many close? Short sales are full of reasons to not close. Is there data that shows short sale numbers or is it all by word of mouth? And just because a transaction is “in process” it does not mean it’s not “for sale”…as in actively seeking to sell the property. Active means it’s for sale and has not closed yet. As someone who is looking to sell a house, you may be unmotivated to show the place because it’s in short sale process, that’s a business decision you’re making. It does not mean it is no longer for sale. And, as you know, the short sale is very likely to fall out. The “Pending” status is very unreliable in todays market.

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  peterb

Come on guys, I mean
Come on guys, I mean seriously why is it so hard to comprehend the current situation. I almost feel as if many of you are actually threatened by the reality of the market.

Honestly throwing around terms like “effective inventory” discussing whether a home is not “for sale” or not really doesn’t mean much.

Peter how many buyers are you shopping for right now. Russ how many calls have you made to listings? Look when statistics are taken about active/pending ratios, or any other statistic is made about an active listing there is no designation about what is an effective active listing or not. Try to simplify things a little bit as I did above… You have someone who wants a home, the home is listed as active but is a short sale that is not taking any more offers. This home while active, is effectively not available at that point in time. Period. It doesn’t matter if it is a short sale that doesn’t go through. It does count as an active listing for the stats that Rich or anyone else takes. Yet for THAT MOMENT in time it is not available. You can write up an offer for it and it will not be submitted.

This is not anything that threatens the depreciation trend. Have no fears guys the market will keep going down. However to sit there and make statements based on your speculation rather then you actually being a buyer looking for a home or an agent showing homes for alot of buyers does not legitimize your cause, whatever cause that may be.

It is very simple, inventory is down, and of the inventory that is active and listed as a short sale, a fair percentage of those homes are either not taking offers or are only taking backups. What is the problem with that? Why is that such a hard thing to accept? Why don’t any of you make some calls and run your own data to see?

NotCranky
14 years ago
Reply to  SD Realtor

SD Realtor wrote:Come on
[quote=SD Realtor]Come on guys, I mean seriously why is it so hard to comprehend the current situation. I almost feel as if many of you are actually threatened by the reality of the market.

Honestly throwing around terms like “effective inventory” discussing whether a home is not “for sale” or not really doesn’t mean much.

Peter how many buyers are you shopping for right now. Russ how many calls have you made to listings? Look when statistics are taken about active/pending ratios, or any other statistic is made about an active listing there is no designation about what is an effective active listing or not. Try to simplify things a little bit as I did above… You have someone who wants a home, the home is listed as active but is a short sale that is not taking any more offers. This home while active, is effectively not available at that point in time. Period. It doesn’t matter if it is a short sale that doesn’t go through. It does count as an active listing for the stats that Rich or anyone else takes. Yet for THAT MOMENT in time it is not available. You can write up an offer for it and it will not be submitted.

This is not anything that threatens the depreciation trend. Have no fears guys the market will keep going down. However to sit there and make statements based on your speculation rather then you actually being a buyer looking for a home or an agent showing homes for alot of buyers does not legitimize your cause, whatever cause that may be.

It is very simple, inventory is down, and of the inventory that is active and listed as a short sale, a fair percentage of those homes are either not taking offers or are only taking backups. What is the problem with that? Why is that such a hard thing to accept? Why don’t any of you make some calls and run your own data to see?

[/quote]

?

NotCranky
14 years ago
Reply to  SD Realtor

I did not say it doesn’t
I did not say it doesn’t decrease inventory. I said I think there are many reasons we can not assume it decreases effective inventory relative to other recent factors by a large percentage.Rich asked a question that I believe is rooted in the same idea? A subset of a few listings,like the one you are closing. doesn’t prove anything and Peter’s “bring data” still stands.It is not that the original sdr can’t be right, the commentary is just full of assumptions.

EJ
EJ
14 years ago

One way to remove the effect
One way to remove the effect of “number of days in a month” would be to normalize the monthly sales volume data with the number of days in the month. This would effectively give average sales per day for each month.

You could even take it another step and normalize by business days to account for holidays.