Below are a few quick graphs of the December numbers… I will note that for the second month in a row, the high tier fell most on a month-to-month basis (-2.4%).
I should also note that the tier cutoffs keep getting lower — moreso than would be accounted for by just price declines — because most of the activity is concentrated in lower-priced properties. (The cutoffs, you may recall, are arrived at by separating all the home sales into thirds by price, so the tiers will drop as more low-priced stuff sells).
Anyway, here’s a chart from the peak:
And from the beginning of the index.
And then the same two charts adjusted for CPI inflation:
Here’s a new one, suggested by a reader. It is the trend in year-over-year change, like what I do with the job numbers. While prices are still falling, the rate at which they are doing so has decelerated. A little.
Yup, the graphs speak for
Yup, the graphs speak for themselves. Price decrease velocity may be slowing but value is still be eroded quickly and affecting all price ranges.
I have a feeling velocity will pick up again when the mid and higher priced owners realize they are not going to be getting much of a “deal” out of this stimulus package, related to mortgage write-downs.
Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.
Huckleberry wrote:Case in
[quote=Huckleberry]Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.[/quote]
Could you please provide a link?
Sandi Egan wrote:Huckleberry
[quote=Sandi Egan][quote=Huckleberry]Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.[/quote]
Could you please provide a link?[/quote]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123559630127675581.html?mod=article-outset-box
David J wrote:Sandi Egan
[quote=David J][quote=Sandi Egan][quote=Huckleberry]Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.[/quote]
Could you please provide a link?[/quote]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123559630127675581.html?mod=article-outset-box%5B/quote%5D
So, if you earn over $209K/year, you lose 20% of your mortgage interest deduction. That’s not happy times – don’t get me wrong – but it’s not exactly a killer, either.
So judging by the graphs
So judging by the graphs (particularly the CPI-adjusted one) it looks like we have almost blown off the bubble, and gotten “down” to the secular peak. (I’m comparing to the previous peak of ~1990.)
The rate-of-change graph is an interesting one, it reminds me of something Robert Campbell would do. He very much studies the momentum of changes (in foreclosures, etc)
Huckleberry wrote:
Case in
Huckleberry wrote:
… for couples making over $208,000 a year. Their deduction goes from 33% of the interest to 28% of the interest.
Shoot, that’s just a nibble– and doesn’t affect small fry like me at all.
Just goes to show you, you always gotta ask, “Taxes on who??