December 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

The year ended on a small up note, as the median price per square
foot of resale San Diego homes was up .5%for single family homes,
down .2% for condos, and up .3% in aggregate:

Here’s how the median price per square foot numbers changed for the
year 2011:

• Single family homes: down 5.2%
• Condos: down 2.3%
• Aggregate: down 4.4%

Here’s the median price per square foot overlaid on a calendar grid,
to make seasonal trends more clear:

And a look at the plain vanilla median since the peak:

And here’s the “projected” Case-Shiller overall home price index for
San Diego, estimated from the recent median price per square foot
data:

The estimated HPI was down (from the actual HPI) by .7% for the
month and 5.5% for 2011.

Same thing as above with the calendar grid:

Closed sales jumped, as usual in December.  Sales were up 3.8%
from December 2010.

Pending sales declined, also typical in December.  Pendings
were up 8.2% from a year ago.

 
 Inventory was down for the month and ended the year 15.9%
lower than in December 2010.

And months of inventory notched up:

This stat, which is very important because it combines supply and
demand into one figure, was substantially lower than a year prior,
by 22.2% to be exact.  So we enter 2012 with a fairly different
setup, supply and demand wise, (and thus a more positive outlook for
prices) than we entered 2011.  On a gloomier note, that higher
demand is taking place in an environment of lifetime-low mortgage
rates… if (when, in my opinion) that prop is removed, the housing
market will have to fend for itself a bit more.  Of course,
that could be a way off.  In the meantime, those waiting for
a big price decline are likely to be disappointed.