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sdduuuude
12 years ago

Hanging in there but doesn’t
Hanging in there but doesn’t look very Spring Bounce-ish.

sdrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  sdduuuude

I think what we are seeing is
I think what we are seeing is just noise in a pretty stable market for the last couple years. The inventory selling each month is different (we arent selling widgets out here) and some people negotiate better than others. It’s played and IMO will continue playing out exactly as I expected. A little up and a little down on the stats but otherwise a normal balanced market. The key in this market is educating oneself and having top notch representation to get you a good to great deal in the current market. Anyone expecting big declines (or increases for that matter) is in for disaapointment.

ocrenter
12 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

sdrealtor wrote:I think what
[quote=sdrealtor]I think what we are seeing is just noise in a pretty stable market for the last couple years. The inventory selling each month is different (we arent selling widgets out here) and some people negotiate better than others. It’s played and IMO will continue playing out exactly as I expected. A little up and a little down on the stats but otherwise a normal balanced market. The key in this market is educating oneself and having top notch representation to get you a good to great deal in the current market. Anyone expecting big declines (or increases for that matter) is in for disaapointment.[/quote]

agree. a buyer really need to be extremely well educated about the market and sub-market.

take these two examples.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110019491-7066_Corintia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009

vs

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100059548-7327_Circulo_Papayo_Carlsbad_CA_92009

these two homes, the bigger one was sold at the peak for $1.14 million. the smaller one sold at the peak for $1.18 million. So we know intrinsically the smaller one is at a better location.

but the smaller one just sold for over its 2006 price at $1.3 million. in the mean time, the bigger home just sold for $870k.

maybe someone familiar with the local variations such as sdrealtor can clue me in on why the smaller home may be worth more than $400k compared to the larger home. But the bottom line here is at the peak, the price difference between these two homes was $40k. Now the difference is $430k. What gives?

but this type of weird sale price difference in what appear to be similar homes is what is happening over and over again. demonstrating that knowledge and proper representation is key.

sdrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  ocrenter

ocr
Regarding your two comps

ocr
Regarding your two comps they are apples and oranges. The bigger one is in LC Oaks, its foreclosure flip. The house was very strangely upgraded. It could have sold for a bit more if it was done better perhaps 50 to 100K more.

The smaller one is in gated LC Ridge and is on a prime ocean view lot. It has huge ocean views and these homes all sold immediately with a long line of buyers wanting them. They are coveted. I beleive it has a 1st floor master so it lives like a one story. An older, wealthy buyer looking for a 1 story ocean view home in a safe gated neighborhood probably bought it. That is not an easy thing to find. For comparison, 7131 Corinita down the street with no view but similar size as Circulo Papayo sold for $859K.

Sorry but it was a bad example to compare but a good example of what local knowledge means.

ocrenter
12 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

sdrealtor wrote:ocr
For

[quote=sdrealtor]ocr
For comparison, 7131 Corinita down the street with no view but similar size as Circulo Papayo sold for $859K.

Sorry but it was a bad example to compare but a good example of what local knowledge means.[/quote]

sdr, that’s still a 440k difference. just for view and single story premium?

sdrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  ocrenter

ocr, two thoughts on that.
ocr, two thoughts on that. Shea was first out of the gate in LC Oaks and prices rose a fair amount between then and when LC Ridge was built.

And yes there is a HUUUGGGEEE premium for a large 1 story with a killer oceanview. Put it in a gated community and its even bigger. Try to find another 3,000+ sq ft 1 story with a killer ocean view in a gated community anywhere along the coast.

ocrenter
12 years ago
Reply to  sdrealtor

sdrealtor wrote:ocr, two
[quote=sdrealtor]ocr, two thoughts on that. Shea was first out of the gate in LC Oaks and prices rose a fair amount between then and when LC Ridge was built.

And yes there is a HUUUGGGEEE premium for a large 1 story with a killer oceanview. Put it in a gated community and its even bigger. Try to find another 3,000+ sq ft 1 story with a killer ocean view in a gated community anywhere along the coast.[/quote]

there may be a premium, but it isn’t a good buy.

here’s why:
#1: the purchase price was $120k over peak pricing. let’s assume upgrades were $200k, that’s only $80k less than peak pricing.
#2: the property is as coastal as Rancho Carillo, Bressi is actually more coastal. It is 5 miles off coast, within SMUSD. with the way the house sits, it isn’t even direct ocean view, rather it is ocean view off to the left.
#3: we all know at peak, intrinsic differences between homes cause price difference to expand, but at bottom, that price difference should shrink. it is the slinky effect. in this case, the less desirable has dropped dramatically but the more desirable has not dropped at all.
#4: if you do end up buying at peak pricing, even assuming premium location and view, there is no room to go in regard to appreciation. this is what we call “low upside opportunity, high downside risk.”

THIS IS TRUE KILLER VIEW:

[img_assist|nid=14963|title=oceanview|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=350]

2.5 miles from the ocean, at similar sqft and lot size, this one is going for $965k. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110011130-92008

of course, you will say this is a 2 story and not a 1 story. but the point is for 7066 Corintia, the view and location did not justify the price difference of $450k. View and location is at best $100-150k. So now we are at this issue: does the single story status justify $300k difference in price? no, I’ve seen at best $100k difference between 1 vs 2 story homes of similar size.

So are we to say $100k + $150k = $450k?

sdrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  ocrenter

ocr
I see what you are trying

ocr
I see what you are trying to do and it just doesnt work that way. Supply and demand. Find me a 3,000+ sq ft nearly new 1 story in gated community with a killer oceanview. I’ve been up there and it is killer.

Check out 3225 Sitio Montecillo another big 1 story up there just went pending in under 2 weeks with asking price of $1.374M. Ooops they did it again.

ltokuda
12 years ago
Reply to  ocrenter

ocrenter wrote:
agree. a

[quote=ocrenter]
agree. a buyer really need to be extremely well educated about the market and sub-market.

take these two examples.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110019491-7066_Corintia_St_Carlsbad_CA_92009

vs

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100059548-7327_Circulo_Papayo_Carlsbad_CA_92009

these two homes, the bigger one was sold at the peak for $1.14 million. the smaller one sold at the peak for $1.18 million. So we know intrinsically the smaller one is at a better location.

but the smaller one just sold for over its 2006 price at $1.3 million. in the mean time, the bigger home just sold for $870k.

maybe someone familiar with the local variations such as sdrealtor can clue me in on why the smaller home may be worth more than $400k compared to the larger home. But the bottom line here is at the peak, the price difference between these two homes was $40k. Now the difference is $430k. What gives?

but this type of weird sale price difference in what appear to be similar homes is what is happening over and over again. demonstrating that knowledge and proper representation is key.[/quote]

For new homes (especially new developments), I’ve seen cases where the purchase price was set far in advance of the house being constructed. That happened to a high end community near me. The purchase price was set in 2005 but due to delays, the homes weren’t built until 2006. So by the time the homes were actually purchased and landscaping was put in, the market value of the home was much greater than the price paid. I think a couple of people manage to flip their houses for a pretty good profit (about 25% in half a year). Not sure if this is the case with the small house in your link but that may be a possibility.

desmond
12 years ago

All that “knowledge” just
All that “knowledge” just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the “idiot” price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.

ocrenter
12 years ago
Reply to  desmond

desmond wrote:All that
[quote=desmond]All that “knowledge” just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the “idiot” price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.[/quote]

if sdr can actually steer folks away from making idiotic purchases, I say fly that banner.

but bottom line, as long as there are idiots, there will be folks buying at “idiot” prices. the key is do your own research so you don’t end up on the wrong end of the “idiot” line. if you are not willing to do your own research, proper representation is key.

sdrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  ocrenter

Thx ocr and I think both are
Thx ocr and I think both are key. As for flying a banner, I have a pretty clear record of not soliciting people on this site. There are lots of good agents out there and I encourage people to find one. I have actually had posters contact me with the names of agents they were thinking of using to research those agents and give my opinion.

urbanrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  desmond

desmond wrote:All that
[quote=desmond]All that “knowledge” just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the “idiot” price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.[/quote]

Desmond, that was a weak post.
sdr does not generally solicit on this site and generally makes pretty astute observations.
There are agents who do solicit on this site but sdr is not one of them.

desmond
12 years ago
Reply to  urbanrealtor

I tried to be as weak as
I tried to be as weak as possible, I did not want anybody to start crying.

urbanrealtor
12 years ago
Reply to  desmond

desmond wrote:I tried to be
[quote=desmond]I tried to be as weak as possible, I did not want anybody to start crying.[/quote]
To quote the dear leader, mission accomplished.

Nobody cried and it was weak.