These predictions aren’t being pulled out of thin air. Piggingtonians are using the available data to make predictions — number of ARM resets, income levels, current interest rate and what have you. Is anyone going to be able to predict the exact bottom? Probably not many, but it looks like a good bet that the market is going to be lower next year than it is this year.

All one can really do is use the data to make estimates based on probabilities. If you think the time to buy is now and that prices will soon shoot up again then go for it. You can come back in laugh in all our faces next year after your house has doubled in value.

Most of us on this forum (for the last few years I might add) have been asking your same questions.

We are all agreed the market has turned, and is headed down. The questions now are, for long, and how low. Lots of very smart people on here have answered many related questions, using very good data. This is called forecasting. It’s used all the time in business. Each week new data comes out that helps us revise these answers.

To answer your question about the run-up: yes, most of us did know the market would go up during that time period. What we didn’t know was for how long, and how high. I think it exceeded everyone’s imaginations.

I think you are just badgering us when asking for winning lotto numbers, no? In any case, here they are: 20, 12, 87, 92, 41, 43.

Most of us on this forum (for the last few years I might add) have been asking your same questions.

We are all agreed the market has turned, and is headed down. The questions now are, for long, and how low. Lots of very smart people on here have answered many related questions, using very good data. This is called forecasting. It’s used all the time in business. Each week new data comes out that helps us revise these answers.

To answer your question about the run-up: yes, most of us did know the market would go up during that time period. What we didn’t know was for how long, and how high. I think it exceeded everyone’s imaginations.

I think you are just badgering us when asking for winning lotto numbers, no? In any case, here they are: 20, 12, 87, 92, 41, 43.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

I see CountryWide going BK,

It’s no skin off my butt whether you believe us or not………..but it can cost you a lot of money. Yes, I did predict the run-up that occurred. I went through the run-up in prices between 1988-1992 and the subsequent drop that happened after that. When things starting warming up in early 1998, I predicted that we were in for another run-up and by 2001, I told my friends that due to the rate that it was ramping up, it would probably have to blow up by 2005 or 2006 because nobody would be able to continue paying for the crazy mortgages that they were getting. We sold our house in early 2005, cashed out and left CA. I’m waiting for the mess to bottom out and then we’ll move back. If you look at all the facts and figures, it’s not hard to predict these things, especially if you’ve been through one before.

It’s no skin off my butt whether you believe us or not………..but it can cost you a lot of money. Yes, I did predict the run-up that occurred. I went through the run-up in prices between 1988-1992 and the subsequent drop that happened after that. When things starting warming up in early 1998, I predicted that we were in for another run-up and by 2001, I told my friends that due to the rate that it was ramping up, it would probably have to blow up by 2005 or 2006 because nobody would be able to continue paying for the crazy mortgages that they were getting. We sold our house in early 2005, cashed out and left CA. I’m waiting for the mess to bottom out and then we’ll move back. If you look at all the facts and figures, it’s not hard to predict these things, especially if you’ve been through one before.