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NotCranky.
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July 21, 2007 at 10:27 PM #9562July 22, 2007 at 12:06 AM #66909
patientrenter
ParticipantGreat stuff, Gary. I plotted the 3 series you gave (1/1, 2/1, 2/2) on my own spreadsheet at home, and got to the same conclusions you drew. (I too don’t know how to post charts). I appreciate your sharing your original, insightful, and objective research.
Gary, your description of the places in El Cajon you’re considering make them seem like slums. Based on the quality of what you’ve posted, you sound capable and level-headed. I don’t mean to offend you in any way, but if someone like you thinks they have to live in a slum, then maybe you’re not getting paid your worth. Have you considered finding higher-paying alternatives to your current job or business?
Patient renter in OC
July 22, 2007 at 12:06 AM #66974ParticipantGreat stuff, Gary. I plotted the 3 series you gave (1/1, 2/1, 2/2) on my own spreadsheet at home, and got to the same conclusions you drew. (I too don’t know how to post charts). I appreciate your sharing your original, insightful, and objective research.
Gary, your description of the places in El Cajon you’re considering make them seem like slums. Based on the quality of what you’ve posted, you sound capable and level-headed. I don’t mean to offend you in any way, but if someone like you thinks they have to live in a slum, then maybe you’re not getting paid your worth. Have you considered finding higher-paying alternatives to your current job or business?
Patient renter in OC
July 22, 2007 at 12:38 AM #66918PerryChase
ParticipantGreat work, Gary. Thanks for sharing. 🙂 I know the area that you’re talking about as I’ve been to the DMV other there. I had some business in that area and it’s not bad. Actually Lennar is building Sky Ranch in Santee just up the hill. Santee has many new housing developments; and interestingly the median income in Santee is higher than San Diego (most likely because it’s fairly new with more recent residents who bought in at a higher cost basis).
Once the 52 connects with the 67 that area will be pretty convenient. You can zoom over to San Diego on the 52. 67 and I8 will take you to SDSU then Downtown SD easily.
If you look at the map, that area will eventually be “central” as more development moves eastwards. Comparing to The OC, this area will become like a Yorba Linda of San Diego.
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Perhaps Gary doesn’t want to spend a large chunk of his income on housing. I can understand that. Think of all the people in such communities as Carmel Valley, Irvine and Laguna Niguel who absolutely have to have a certain minimum income income in order to keep the house and the car, not to mention keep the family happy. That’s a lot of stress. Most would say that they have nice lives but I think not.
What about doing what makes you happy and live life as the adventure that it should be?
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To post graphs, open the window that contains the graph. Do an Alt+PrtSc (print screen). Open a graphic program like Microsoft Paint, paste then save as .jpg. Then post the .jpg file.July 22, 2007 at 12:38 AM #66982ParticipantGreat work, Gary. Thanks for sharing. 🙂 I know the area that you’re talking about as I’ve been to the DMV other there. I had some business in that area and it’s not bad. Actually Lennar is building Sky Ranch in Santee just up the hill. Santee has many new housing developments; and interestingly the median income in Santee is higher than San Diego (most likely because it’s fairly new with more recent residents who bought in at a higher cost basis).
Once the 52 connects with the 67 that area will be pretty convenient. You can zoom over to San Diego on the 52. 67 and I8 will take you to SDSU then Downtown SD easily.
If you look at the map, that area will eventually be “central” as more development moves eastwards. Comparing to The OC, this area will become like a Yorba Linda of San Diego.
———–
Perhaps Gary doesn’t want to spend a large chunk of his income on housing. I can understand that. Think of all the people in such communities as Carmel Valley, Irvine and Laguna Niguel who absolutely have to have a certain minimum income income in order to keep the house and the car, not to mention keep the family happy. That’s a lot of stress. Most would say that they have nice lives but I think not.
What about doing what makes you happy and live life as the adventure that it should be?
———-
To post graphs, open the window that contains the graph. Do an Alt+PrtSc (print screen). Open a graphic program like Microsoft Paint, paste then save as .jpg. Then post the .jpg file.July 22, 2007 at 2:30 AM #66929garysears
ParticipantMaybe I am overstating the negative aspects of the neighborhood because I come from a different background with different expectations regarding life in general. In all fairness I can’t really say how bad it is compared to other places in the county.
What I can say is I live near an exit off 67 and am located between 2 7-Elevens and 2 liquor stores, a couple of mobile home parks, and a bar. The neighborhood seems full of interesting characters and groups of young people without much to do. But at any given time you could probably go through here and not notice anything out of the ordinary. I haven’t actually witnessed the vandalism or thefts, etc. in person, just the aftereffects. It could be a relatively few bad apples here.
I walk to one of the liquor stores or 7-Eleven most days and usually run into people that don’t seem highly employed or are prone to mumbling to themselves. That is probably because there are a couple of bus stops in the area. The most popular one is by the DMV and is a common transient hang out.
I don’t have to live here but I choose to live here. I was renting in San Carlos / Lake Murray last year and paying 2X as much to rent a house. I made some significant quality of live choices to get my finances under control and to allow for the future possibility of buying a house. I am actually very well paid, probably more so than is really justified. I make more than the median household S.D. income by myself and I have job security if I want to continue in my career. But I have not always been smart with money and I also had some significant life events that caused bills I couldn’t avoid. So now I’m trying to make up for lost time and am working on a solid financial foundation.
That extra 1K a month in rent was significant to me.
Is East Bradley avenue really that bad? I don’t know.
I can say it is an objective fact that all the realtor signs on the street are vandalised. It is also an fact that there have been several occurances of vehicle vandalism on the street in the 8 months or so I’ve been here. There were still 3 or 4 cars with their tires slashed today in front of the complex. I guess some people do not have the funds immediately to buy new tires. I kind of assume that from the condition of the cars themselves.It is a fact my garage has been broken into here. But my house was broken into twice in San Carlos as well and my garage in Spring Valley before that. I was living at La Mirage off Friar’s Rd and I-8 and they had vandelism / theft issues there in their underground parking. So maybe it is just San Diego in general going down the toilet.
It is mostly the fact that I half expect to get jumped everytime I leave my apartment complex that is the primary difference. That wasn’t the case in any of the previous places I have lived. But I was mostly in the Mission Valley / Mission Gorge area before.
I also note that despite my dislike of some elements there are many families raising children here that will probably get away with it. The kids won’t be killed or molested and might even turn out OK. I do see some very young (3yrs old maybe) and unattented kids running around my apartment after dark and even teenage girls walking down the dark street. For the most part they must be getting away with it. This might actually be normal San Diego for all I know.
I don’t know what should qualify as “ghetto” and I’m sure I’m overly quick to define many things as “ghetto”, but I DO know what qualifies as objectionable. I have to park one of my cars on the street and it is only a matter of time before it is vandalised. I am pretty much resigned to that. Last week one morning there was a used condom on my car windshield.
But again, I am fine living here because I know it is temporary and not required. If I buy a place here it will be less so. For now I have the means to go elsewhere if I decide I can’t stand it.
I appreciated the feedback about my little data project. Up till now I haven’t really added anything to this site but have taken plenty.
I should add that I finally noticed there are 2 sale prices and dates for #139 (thus only 94 condos). I’m not sure how the unit sold for $294K and then four months later for only $205K. The $205K data point should obviously be disregarded as it is an anomally $35K lower than any other sale.
July 22, 2007 at 2:30 AM #66994ParticipantMaybe I am overstating the negative aspects of the neighborhood because I come from a different background with different expectations regarding life in general. In all fairness I can’t really say how bad it is compared to other places in the county.
What I can say is I live near an exit off 67 and am located between 2 7-Elevens and 2 liquor stores, a couple of mobile home parks, and a bar. The neighborhood seems full of interesting characters and groups of young people without much to do. But at any given time you could probably go through here and not notice anything out of the ordinary. I haven’t actually witnessed the vandalism or thefts, etc. in person, just the aftereffects. It could be a relatively few bad apples here.
I walk to one of the liquor stores or 7-Eleven most days and usually run into people that don’t seem highly employed or are prone to mumbling to themselves. That is probably because there are a couple of bus stops in the area. The most popular one is by the DMV and is a common transient hang out.
I don’t have to live here but I choose to live here. I was renting in San Carlos / Lake Murray last year and paying 2X as much to rent a house. I made some significant quality of live choices to get my finances under control and to allow for the future possibility of buying a house. I am actually very well paid, probably more so than is really justified. I make more than the median household S.D. income by myself and I have job security if I want to continue in my career. But I have not always been smart with money and I also had some significant life events that caused bills I couldn’t avoid. So now I’m trying to make up for lost time and am working on a solid financial foundation.
That extra 1K a month in rent was significant to me.
Is East Bradley avenue really that bad? I don’t know.
I can say it is an objective fact that all the realtor signs on the street are vandalised. It is also an fact that there have been several occurances of vehicle vandalism on the street in the 8 months or so I’ve been here. There were still 3 or 4 cars with their tires slashed today in front of the complex. I guess some people do not have the funds immediately to buy new tires. I kind of assume that from the condition of the cars themselves.It is a fact my garage has been broken into here. But my house was broken into twice in San Carlos as well and my garage in Spring Valley before that. I was living at La Mirage off Friar’s Rd and I-8 and they had vandelism / theft issues there in their underground parking. So maybe it is just San Diego in general going down the toilet.
It is mostly the fact that I half expect to get jumped everytime I leave my apartment complex that is the primary difference. That wasn’t the case in any of the previous places I have lived. But I was mostly in the Mission Valley / Mission Gorge area before.
I also note that despite my dislike of some elements there are many families raising children here that will probably get away with it. The kids won’t be killed or molested and might even turn out OK. I do see some very young (3yrs old maybe) and unattented kids running around my apartment after dark and even teenage girls walking down the dark street. For the most part they must be getting away with it. This might actually be normal San Diego for all I know.
I don’t know what should qualify as “ghetto” and I’m sure I’m overly quick to define many things as “ghetto”, but I DO know what qualifies as objectionable. I have to park one of my cars on the street and it is only a matter of time before it is vandalised. I am pretty much resigned to that. Last week one morning there was a used condom on my car windshield.
But again, I am fine living here because I know it is temporary and not required. If I buy a place here it will be less so. For now I have the means to go elsewhere if I decide I can’t stand it.
I appreciated the feedback about my little data project. Up till now I haven’t really added anything to this site but have taken plenty.
I should add that I finally noticed there are 2 sale prices and dates for #139 (thus only 94 condos). I’m not sure how the unit sold for $294K and then four months later for only $205K. The $205K data point should obviously be disregarded as it is an anomally $35K lower than any other sale.
July 22, 2007 at 8:15 AM #66934Bugs
ParticipantYou’re analyzing the one neighborhood because that’s where you are right now. I think you’ll probably wind up waiting until the market settles. By the time it does settle you may change your mind about what your options are. Some areas in El Cajon are better than others. If you go west of 3rd Street you’ll probably find the prices for the same types of units are only slighly higher.
You may end up being able to go west instead of east. Who knows, prices may settle so much that La Mesa or San Carlos might be within your reach.
July 22, 2007 at 8:15 AM #66998ParticipantYou’re analyzing the one neighborhood because that’s where you are right now. I think you’ll probably wind up waiting until the market settles. By the time it does settle you may change your mind about what your options are. Some areas in El Cajon are better than others. If you go west of 3rd Street you’ll probably find the prices for the same types of units are only slighly higher.
You may end up being able to go west instead of east. Who knows, prices may settle so much that La Mesa or San Carlos might be within your reach.
July 22, 2007 at 10:46 AM #66945NotCranky
ParticipantFearing getting mugged gets old IMO. Fearing that someone you love is going to get mugged is worse.I tried to be non-chalant about repeated break-ins but that gets old too. I am still glad I chose a questionable neighborhood to start my real estate ownership history when I could have borrowed more to go to a better place. Being young and single and helped.
Speculating that the neighborhood would improve was part of the motivation and it did to a large degree. I would have stayed there if I was single still.
It is hard to talk about neighborhoods and housing stock without sounding like a snob or sounding insensitive or competetive or getting defensive. I commend you Gary for being able to talk candidly about your aspirations for lower priced areas. Again, you seem very smart to me. I hope you will enjoy the feed back you get here toward helping you make your eventual choice.
July 22, 2007 at 10:46 AM #67010ParticipantFearing getting mugged gets old IMO. Fearing that someone you love is going to get mugged is worse.I tried to be non-chalant about repeated break-ins but that gets old too. I am still glad I chose a questionable neighborhood to start my real estate ownership history when I could have borrowed more to go to a better place. Being young and single and helped.
Speculating that the neighborhood would improve was part of the motivation and it did to a large degree. I would have stayed there if I was single still.
It is hard to talk about neighborhoods and housing stock without sounding like a snob or sounding insensitive or competetive or getting defensive. I commend you Gary for being able to talk candidly about your aspirations for lower priced areas. Again, you seem very smart to me. I hope you will enjoy the feed back you get here toward helping you make your eventual choice.
July 22, 2007 at 2:42 PM #66997ParticipantPC, can you help? I followed your instructions and have the .jpg file. Err… How do I “post it”? I’ll need each step. Think posting jpgs for dummies.
Gary, I think we all see lots of people who have high expectations, quite often extending beyond their abilities. Seeing someone like you with modest expectations, that appear to be pitched below your abilities, is refreshing. I think we’re all responding to that. I hope that this forum can help get the best possible outcome for you, whatever that is. (And for all our sakes, I hope that’s not any kind of slum.)
My own outlook is not that different from yours, but your expectations are even more modest than mine. I hope to pay cash for a simple 2+1 or 2+2 w/ garage in OC for $300K +/- $100K, even though my income and savings are several multiples of the averages, and I have no debt or other obligations. My guess is that you’re younger than me, and if I were younger, I’d allow myself a little freedom if it got me my own place in a neighborhood where you felt more at home. (I could buy a place right now within my budget in a bad part of Santa Ana, but if I bought I’d be looking to get out as long as I lived there.)
I have lived for years in places where crime was an issue, and it’s wearing. It also costs time and money. It means you can’t own a new car without worry. Now I leave my car and apartment unlocked without a second thought, and never have to worry. That’s extreme, but the fundamental economics says that someone who’s above average should be able to afford at least an average home, and at some point in this cycle that oughta happen.
Patient renter in OC
July 22, 2007 at 2:42 PM #67062ParticipantPC, can you help? I followed your instructions and have the .jpg file. Err… How do I “post it”? I’ll need each step. Think posting jpgs for dummies.
Gary, I think we all see lots of people who have high expectations, quite often extending beyond their abilities. Seeing someone like you with modest expectations, that appear to be pitched below your abilities, is refreshing. I think we’re all responding to that. I hope that this forum can help get the best possible outcome for you, whatever that is. (And for all our sakes, I hope that’s not any kind of slum.)
My own outlook is not that different from yours, but your expectations are even more modest than mine. I hope to pay cash for a simple 2+1 or 2+2 w/ garage in OC for $300K +/- $100K, even though my income and savings are several multiples of the averages, and I have no debt or other obligations. My guess is that you’re younger than me, and if I were younger, I’d allow myself a little freedom if it got me my own place in a neighborhood where you felt more at home. (I could buy a place right now within my budget in a bad part of Santa Ana, but if I bought I’d be looking to get out as long as I lived there.)
I have lived for years in places where crime was an issue, and it’s wearing. It also costs time and money. It means you can’t own a new car without worry. Now I leave my car and apartment unlocked without a second thought, and never have to worry. That’s extreme, but the fundamental economics says that someone who’s above average should be able to afford at least an average home, and at some point in this cycle that oughta happen.
Patient renter in OC
July 25, 2007 at 9:04 PM #67796ParticipantIf anyone is interested, here are the graphs of the data in my original post. I don’t know how to post a .jpg here if that is even possible.
1bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4rcz0hs.jpg2bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4mkcrye.jpg2bd/2ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/6829181.jpgJuly 25, 2007 at 9:04 PM #67862ParticipantIf anyone is interested, here are the graphs of the data in my original post. I don’t know how to post a .jpg here if that is even possible.
1bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4rcz0hs.jpg2bd/1ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/4mkcrye.jpg2bd/2ba condo sales:
http://i17.tinypic.com/6829181.jpg -
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