Wow. Sounds like this is a religious issue for some of us.
All I was saying about Hubbert’s Peak is that it is an overly simplistic model and that his estimates were based on the extraction of cheap oil. As price goes up, production will increase because one can now make money on the oil that is more expensive to extract (deep ocean, shale, etc) or more expensive to refine (such as oil with high sulfur).
I liked the suggestion for me to read a science book because I said production follows demand–as if I suggested we could simply manufacture more oil. The fact is, oil wells are not simply straws sucking the fluid from a big bucket of dino-goo.
If you read a book on the subject, you will see that many current oil wells require a relaxation time before pumping can continue since these oil fields are more like sponges. Once you pump out all the oil near the well, it takes time for the oil to percolate depending on the permeability of the substrate, and viscosity if the oil.
Other wells require enormous capital outlay to reach the remaining oil. Many wells only reach 10% extraction ratios–and all this is the oil Hubbert used in his calculation, not the 100% that is there. If we increase the extraction ratio, the date of peak total oil shifts out.
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory
Critics such as Leonardo Maugeri, vice president for the Italian energy company ENI, argue that Hubbert peak supporters such as Campbell previously predicted a peak in global oil production in both 1989 and 1995 [31], based on oil production data available at that time. Maugeri claims that nearly all of these estimates do not take into account non-conventional oil even though the availability of these resources is significant and the costs of extraction and processing, while still very high, are falling due to improved technology. Furthermore, he notes that the recovery rate from existing world oil fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today due to new technology and predicts this trend will continue.
As far as oil/energy being a problem–it is probably the most pressing long term issue of the planet, but for now and in the short term, it is mainly an economic issue.
