Based on what we saw after the Cedar fire, I think the answer to this question will be mixed. Last time we were in the midst of a housing boom and taking some of the existing inventory offline spurred additional local demand. Some additional construction jobs came up that wouldn’t have come up. Since there were very few commercial structures there weren’t many jobs lost.
I’ve been chewing on this question for the last couple days and I think this time it will be different. There will be some people who will choose to move into a rental and stay there, those who are underinsured or on edge anyway may move into the rental market for lack of any other options. I think that the rebuild number will be lower this time than last time.
But I still think a lot of people will rebuild and carry on, and a few people might have the means to buy another existing home instead of rebuilding.
The news reports are talking about the loss of some commercial structures, which we didn’t have much of last time. To me, that reads to be the equivalent of saying that several businesses will close down for good and those jobs will be lost. However, the rebuilds will also add some more opportunities for contractors and laborers that they wouldn’t have otherwise had. Retailers will benefit, too, as people replace what they lost.
Will a significant number of people decide that twice is more than enough for them and leave town? I dunno. I do know that this disaster will eventually end up costing us all. If there are losses then somebody is paying, and that somebody will always pass it back to their customers the first opportunity they get.
