- This topic has 588 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 5 months ago by
Aecetia.
-
AuthorPosts
-
May 15, 2007 at 9:54 PM #9092May 15, 2007 at 9:55 PM #52981
sdrealtor
Participant5/1 to 5/7
new listings – 14
back on market – 1Total growth in inventory – 15
pendings – 6
expired – 6
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 5Total decrease in inventory – 19
Net change in inventory – minus 4
May 15, 2007 at 10:02 PM #52982Participant5/8 to 5/14
new listings – 6
back on market – 3Total growth in inventory – 9
pendings – 17
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 24
Net change in inventory – minus 15
FYI-there are currently 142 homes on the market in 92130 of which 38 are over $2M and 71 in escrow of which of which 6 are over $2M. Up to $1.5M there are 87 on the market and 58 in escrow.
See ya next week….
May 16, 2007 at 12:13 AM #52986NotCranky
ParticipantThanks for considering me a fellow poster. I was out today sorry you missed me…I got my adrenal glands removed and a frontal lobotomy to boot. I should be much more placid.I don’t know why but I keep saying Real Estate always goes up!It’s a good time to buy or sell!
Quoting you:
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”
IF it doesn’t weaken is it also still a Bellweather for the rest of the county? Damn it! the Doc must of missed some grey matter!
!Bellweathers, Rustico dont need no stinking bellweathers!
Wife in Back Ground….Down Rustico, Down! Good boy Rustico!Don’t worry I will remove this when you stop laughing.I don’t want to mess up your bellweathers dedicated to me.
May 16, 2007 at 7:59 AM #52998ibjames
Participantha ha, if there is another piggington meet, you better watch out sd, you might have a stalker 🙂
May 16, 2007 at 8:43 AM #53006ParticipantI think he is stalking ME…he created this link in my honor.
I think I can hang around to help him do it right!
Besides that, I am sure at the meet up My Friend will have my ass kicked all the way to Jamul!Seriously though the logic of his cv monitor being a bellweather doesn’t pass the mustard!But of course he knows that it’s all just very entertaining. I am surprised that the guy who posts more than anyone else just doesn’t have time to do it accurately or simply admit when in fact he is conclusively wrong. And I am not talking about spelling. And you don’t start a sentence with and.Yes I took it personal.
May 16, 2007 at 8:51 AM #53008no_such_reality
Participantsdr, just to be clear, care to define what you are dropping in each category? i.e. Are the new, new or new and relisted?
Also, probably refresh my memory, the difference between pendings and in escrow?
May 16, 2007 at 9:30 AM #53010ParticipantRustico get your panties out of a bunch and help me do it right then. If you have a suggested improvement to the methodology I’m all ears and would gladly make it better. Here’s what I’m thinking. The balance between supply and demand is among the best in all of SD county if not the best as measured by the actives vs. pendings. If this market weakens it might a bad sign for weaker markets. If it doesnt weaken that isnt necessarily a sign that other markets wont but it would certainly provoke further questions and analysis. This is about absolute answers, we all know better than that. It’s about watching changes in the marketplace and this is yet another way. The truth is we could look at any market and use it as a benchmark. I just chose this one because so many around here are interested in it (in spite of the fact I dont care for CV at all).
Pendings are the same thing as in escrow.
New listings are either new or relists. It doesnt matter because we are measuring the change and relists would be balanced by expireds/cancelleds.
May 16, 2007 at 10:03 AM #53016ParticipantThanks, just wanted to validate.
For me, the greater interest is in the (new-relist)/(pendings) ratio. It tells us how matched up buyers and sellers are. Pending/inventory tells us how much competition there is.
Assuming pendings represent just those properties that went pending since the last week. While high inventory volume is bad
May 16, 2007 at 11:02 AM #53019Participantsdr My acerbic wit is turned off for now. There are many better statisticians here than I am. I think in your claim that Your CV monitor creation will be a “bellweather” for the County contradicts correct ideas that you have already expounded on here. Mostly that real estate is local,very local, even when the trend is almost universal. I don’t agree that you can pick a “bellweather” so recklessly. I fear you doing it when the probable intent is to rub my nose in it for as long as your data shows that it is strong which alse has no relevance to how this tiff got going anyhow. San Carlos has a much better listing pending ratio . It might be bullet proof we just don’t know.(It has shown weakness on and off) Other areas might have terrible ratios ,long DOM but prices are strong.Maybe the populace is rich and stable there? If they ride out the eminent bust the declines will look minmal when we look back on this period of time.We can’t make them sell their houses & land, nor can we make generalizations of the market based on what they do.
May 16, 2007 at 11:26 AM #53030gn
Participant“If this market (Carmel Valley) weakens it might a bad sign for weaker markets. If it doesnt weaken that isnt necessarily a sign that other markets wont but it would certainly provoke further questions and analysis.”
sdreator, I think you got it backward.
In a downturn, there is always a “flight for quality”. This is why Carmel Valley (solidly upper middle class) holds up so well.
It’s always the “weaker” markets that go down first. And since all markets are “connected”, eventually, the “stronger” markets will go down also.
So, when Escondido & Chula Vista weaken, it’s a bad sign for Carmel Valley. NOT the other way around. CV is NOT a bellweather.
May 16, 2007 at 11:40 AM #53034SD Realtor
ParticipantI will not speak for sdr but I took his statements to mean that CV was an indicator for the detached mid-upper level market that you referred to gn. It (at least to me) was implicit that his reference was not that CV was an indicator for downtown condos, or eastlake homes or other places like Escondido and such… sdr has stated many times that depreciating hits the outlying areas and less desireables and condos first.
By the way I had a guy yesterday ask me about data for 92025. The active pendings for 3/2 homes in 92025 is 71-5.
Yikes!!
SD Realtor
May 16, 2007 at 12:49 PM #53036ParticipantHi SD,
sdr said
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”He wasn’t specifc enough for me in the first post to make the adjustmetns that you made. In fact he simply says “rest of the county”. Then he says in his second post that he will compare the numbers to be “weaker markets” If he he doing as you say comparing to CV to other “detached mid-upper level markets” It would be hard to understand doing that at all because they would presume to behave the same as CV?
I appreciate your adjustments though, most of sdr’s closest peers on the blog are pretty focused on the “detached mid-upper level market”.At least in recent days. I also get the feeling you would not touch me with a 10 foot pole. That’s O.K. if its true.My inlaws are the same way.
The topic of “flight to quality” is extremely relevant too.IMO
I must admit it. It is easy to cloud our discussion with thoughts that are generally more prevalent in our minds. I have already done it on a few posts.
Yes I m modifying my posts. Yes I am a little sensitive now.Best wishes
May 16, 2007 at 12:49 PM #53040ParticipantHi SD,
sdr said
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”He wasn’t specifc enough for me in the first post to make the adjustmetns that you made. In fact he simply says “rest of the county”. Then he says in his second post that he will compare the numbers to be “weaker markets” If he he doing as you say comparing to CV to other “detached mid-upper level markets” It would be hard to understand doing that at all because they would presume to behave the same as CV?
I appreciate your adjustments though, most of sdr’s closest peers on the blog are pretty focused on the “detached mid-upper level market”.At least in recent days. I also get the feeling you would not touch me with a 10 foot pole. That’s O.K. if its true.My inlaws are the same way.
The topic of “flight to quality” is extremely relevant too.IMO
I must admit it. It is easy to cloud our discussion with thoughts that are generally more prevalent in our minds. I have already done it on a few posts.
Yes I m modifying my posts. Yes I am a little sensitive now.Best wishes
May 16, 2007 at 1:25 PM #53045ParticipantRustico,
Just to be clear, my intent was not to rib you. You pushed me to challenge myself and my assumptions. I like that. I chose CV because many of the participants here follow that market and homes in the same class. I have a bad habit of using blanket statements and you have exposed that. Imagine the horro my wife goes through when I tell here everything is 5 minutes away when she asks.I looked at San Carlos and have a few issues with using it. First the sample size is much smaller with only 61 actives and 28 pendings which btw is not stronger than the CV ratio. It is also a very homogenous range of homes with prices running from 400K to 700K (with prices higher being very rare). It could be a good measure for the entry level market.
When i look at CV I see an area with great schools close to the employement centers for the white collar professional workers that are so predominant around this blog. If I was addressing a different audience I would have chosen a different area.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.