I agree that this last round in the housing bubble drama has gotten people’s attention. I used to be happy when the MSM even mentioned the possibility that this is a housing bubble. The narrative has now turned into “crisis” reporting. The media loves that stuff. I have a feeling we will be hearing alot from the “it’s not that bad” crowd. I found this quote on socalbubble regarding the opposite camps argument;

“The subprime sector is too small to have such a big impact, according to Robert Froehlich, who is chairman of the investor-strategy committee at DWS Scudder, a division of Deutsche Bank AG.
“For all this to occur, the subprime-mortgage collapse has to be big enough and important enough to set the wheels in motion. And the fact is that it isn’t,” he wrote in a market commentary Monday. “It will be the most hyped disaster that never occurred since Y2K.”
Froehlich said Monday that, like Y2K, investors are worrying too much about a subprime-fueled disaster that probably won’t happen.
“The subprime-mortgage market is big, but it’s not big enough to push the U.S. economy into a recession by causing a credit crunch,” he added.
During the peak of the industry’s growth in 2004 and 2005, about 3.2 million homes were purchased with a subprime loan, Froehlich estimated. That’s about 2.8% of total U.S. households, he wrote.
If 30% of those subprime homeowners fail to make their payments, fewer than 1 million households would be “out of luck and out on the street,” Froehlich projected.”

Personally I like to call this the “It’s only a flesh wound” argument. But I’m sure you will be hearing a chorus sing (spin) this tune. IMO they will not be able to spin their way out of this. The last series of events are hitting like a freight train. As I mentioned this has Joe Sxipack’s attention. This could be a critical turning point in market psychology. I agree with Bill Fleckenstein and anticipate a market freeze over the next three to six months. it’s definitely getting interesting.

Interesting thought – well said, anx.

Very good anology with the babysitting !!

I am going to take a well deserved break also, maybe go surf and fish for a few months so as not to be an eyewitness to the bloody carnage that is going to follow.

My work is done here…On to the next industry that needs our clear type thinking ! Being able to see through the smoke and listen through the static is an art that anyone with a brain can do…..BUT you must first take the "Red Pill"…that requires balls….. and to also turn off "American Idol"

Believe 1/2 of what you read and NONE of what you see on TV

Don’t leave the party! It’s not over. Wonder what bubble will develope out of this bubble? A foreclosure purchasing bubble ??

I casually ask people I know so, what have you heard in the news about the housing market and they say they have heard NOTHING. Nice to know the media has now found it newsworthy.

I am really happy that people won’t think I need psychological counseling for selling my great home any longer. They were looking at me like I was nuts! Okay, maybe I am nuts and I need psychological counseling, but not due to selling my house.

Vindication is sweeeeeeet.

Well said Bugs… Don’t believe the industry is not going to go down without a fight. Once things start touching Fannie and Freddie I honestly do not see the government sitting on the sidelines and watching. What better way to enter the political season then to help those poor souls who lost their homes then to come up with a program to help them out? Sorry but I am just so pissed at our government considering a bailout for them…

More to the point, we need to see all of this inventory to hit the market before we can make any headway downward. Many sellers and even REO properties are still stubborn with pricing. Personally I am still seeing certain markets performing pretty darn well. Of course the one I want to buy in is still white hot… however many many others are not. Again condos are getting hit harder then homes, lower income neighborhoods are also depreciating faster then mid/higher ones and neighborhoods with good schools. Also buyers are looking for more value, less MR and HOA, etc…My guess is that once we move into the dog days of summer we could see a repeat of the summer of 06. We need inventory to move up… Geez we are 2 weeks away from April and definitely off of the 06 inventory levels. Spring is going by quick.

The thing this year is, although we may not come close to approaching the 06 levels, the sellers will now have a higher percentage of banks and lenders then the 06 inventory did.

That is a very good thing.

I won’t feel triumphant until we buy a home, 3-5 years from now when the market has bottomed. Until then, as someone who has only rented so far in his life, for me personally it’s all just paper ups and downs right now.