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60 Comments
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ucodegen
ucodegen
18 years ago

Rich
The link you have

Rich

The link you have pointing to the introduction on his technique is bad. It comes back page not found.

34f3f3f
34f3f3f
18 years ago

I don’t understand why
I don’t understand why places like RSF and La Jolla have asking prices that are going up. Can anyone explain this to me please? Presumably these homes are selling as well?

SD Realtor
SD Realtor
18 years ago
Reply to  34f3f3f

Rich I believe that the
Rich I believe that the noise introduced by using asking prices as an index for data is relevant. If data is going to be gathered in such a manner one really needs to know what is going on in the market or sub market.

For instance…

Right now in Penasquitos there is a 3/2 foreclosure listed at 419k. In two days they have 19 offers and it will blow WAY past asking price. I have posted many times that short sellers will actually use a very artificial low price to stimulate offers simply to get a short sale documentation package into the lender because often a lender will NOT even look at documentation until an offer is received.

Conversely in higher end non distress properties the problem is reversed and many non motivated sellers will list an outlandish price. I am sitting in one of these listings as I type.

Thus I would absolutely stick to sold pricing to obtain the real picture.

SD Realtor

Huckleberry
Huckleberry
18 years ago
Reply to  SD Realtor

I absolutely agree. Asking
I absolutely agree. Asking price means nothing as many sellers or potential sellers are still in denial that housing prices are declining.

The real state of the situation can not be seen unless using actual sold prices.

C

New_Renter
New_Renter
18 years ago
Reply to  Huckleberry

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I believe that looking at the trend in asking prices is valuable as it gives a view into the psychology of the sellers as a group. In particular when contrasted against closed sales trends. It can also help give us early insight into the level of seller confidence by submarket, showing us where sellers may be capitulating or remain over-confident (such as RSF & La Jolla as the previous poster observed) Yes, there is some noise, but when looking at the consolidated picture I think the data is useful.

New_Renter
New_Renter
18 years ago
Reply to  Huckleberry

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I believe that looking at the trend in asking prices is valuable as it gives a view into the psychology of the sellers as a group. In particular when contrasted against closed sales trends. It can also help give us early insight into the level of seller confidence by submarket, showing us where sellers may be capitulating or remain over-confident (such as RSF & La Jolla as the previous poster observed) Yes, there is some noise, but when looking at the consolidated picture I think the data is useful.

New_Renter
New_Renter
18 years ago
Reply to  Huckleberry

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I

SD Realtor & courtc2911,
I believe that looking at the trend in asking prices is valuable as it gives a view into the psychology of the sellers as a group. In particular when contrasted against closed sales trends. It can also help give us early insight into the level of seller confidence by submarket, showing us where sellers may be capitulating or remain over-confident (such as RSF & La Jolla as the previous poster observed) Yes, there is some noise, but when looking at the consolidated picture I think the data is useful.

XBoxBoy
XBoxBoy
18 years ago
Reply to  34f3f3f

Qwerty007 asks why asking
Qwerty007 asks why asking prices are going up in La Jolla, and RSF.

I can’t speak for RSF, but I’ve been watching LJ pretty closely for the last three years. I can tell you that prices are dropping, and the only explanation for what you see in these charts is that the lower priced per sq. ft are the ones that are selling and that the overpriced per sq ft are the ones remaining on the market. Thus it doesn’t surprise me too much that statistics based on asking prices could be rising.

From what I see, clearly the market in LJ is schizophrenic. There are some sellers who are facing up to the drop in prices, and there are others who are so incredibly out of whack that it’s comical.

XBoxBoy

davelj
davelj
18 years ago
Reply to  XBoxBoy

Nice research Bruce and
Nice research Bruce and esmith. Kudos.

sdduuuude
sdduuuude
18 years ago

I think an uptick in selling
I think an uptick in selling prices with concurrent drops in asking price would be a decent bottom indicator.

Anonymous
Anonymous
18 years ago
Reply to  sdduuuude

First I would like to thank
First I would like to thank Rich for linking to the article at

http://and-still-I-persist.com/2008/02/05/housing-price-trends-san-diego-county-detail/

There are some questions as to why I am tracking asking price. First and foremost Hardtack (http://hardtack.osgcorp.com) was purpose built to be a test bed for our new technology for “just in time” data manipulation and mashup. We chose to siphon from MLS data because it was a subject we could easily get people to understand, but it limited us to the ask side of the transaction.

That being said, as long as we make the same comparisons it does show some really interesting data. When connected to sales data for same areas, you can really understand the gap between what is selling and what is not, and where prices are trending.

I was thankful when Rich posted numbers of a 13% year over year decline in sales prices for San Diego, because that is more or less the same number Hardtack gave us by monitoring the pre-sales asking prices in the MLS.

So Hardtack is far from perfect, but it is showing us some fairly interesting information. We have a lot of fun with it because our technology stack allows us to do strange things like find the top 10 places in the USA are for inventory overhang in the $300K – $400K price range.

Thanks again for the link and the comments. I will likely post some additional stats shortly, I am thinking a work up for Sacramento and Phoenix will be the next two.

Bruce Henderson