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Bugs.
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January 19, 2007 at 8:37 AM #8243January 19, 2007 at 8:40 AM #43800
no_such_reality
ParticipantMove up buyers. The same reason why median rises even though sales are soft and discounts major.
January 19, 2007 at 9:16 AM #43805bob007
Participantis the school district good
January 19, 2007 at 10:10 AM #43815(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantMove up buyers. The same reason why median rises even though sales are soft and discounts major.
So, there was a larger concentration of move-up buyers in Poway as opposed to the rest of the county ? It would be nice to have a Professor Piggington-style per-square-foot analysis for Poway to confirm
January 19, 2007 at 10:20 AM #43820sdcellar
ParticipantPoway strikes me as slightly unusual in general (not meaning that as bad as it sounds). They just have a very diverse range of properties–townhomes, large acreage and horse properties, multimillion dollar homes. It seems very subject to the mix of what they sell that year.
An interesting metric might be the degree of variability in normalized median by zip. Anybody up for that?! Yearly is fine…
January 19, 2007 at 11:52 AM #43832little lady
Participant"is the school district good"
It is supposed to be the top district in the county, at least at one time it was.
January 19, 2007 at 11:53 AM #43833Participantduplicate post
January 19, 2007 at 12:15 PM #43838lendingbubblecontinues
ParticipantAgain, guys, the median is a pretty useless indicator….it is simply the home at the midpoint of all sales.
The next lowest priced home below the median could have been at 400K dollars, but the median would have still been “up” year over year.
Also, someone else posted about this year’s 700K house will buy you last year’s 850K house, which appears to be tru….folks this median sh*t is all smoke and mirrors….just look at the houses you are interested in and see what they do over coming months and years. I think you’ll see ’em sliding back down quickly, especially once easy credit is removed.
January 19, 2007 at 12:31 PM #43840SD Realtor
ParticipantRight non lendingbubble
Guys we have had plenty of posts about mortgage frauds and about the inherent unreliability of the median price indicator. It is inherently misleading due to its LACK of information.
I pulled a sold listing in POWAY that went for 75k ABOVE list price and posted about that not long ago. So a home that should have sold for 75k less did not.
Do you think the median price indicator for Murrieta or Temecula is reliable in light of all that fraud?
What about seller credits back to the buyer? Those are not accounted for in the sold price which is then used for the median calculation.
What about the extreme ends of the spectrum. Say there are a few homes that are very very very high end and sell for several million. While they do not represent the true Poway median, they will tilt that median.
At the very least try to give at least some though to yoy sales.
January 19, 2007 at 1:50 PM #43850ParticipantI know about the flaws in median, particularly the more house for the same money angle, and I agree that is a true flaw.
My original point is that even the flawed median is showing a significant decrease county wide. However, there is Poway, hanging in there both in price and sales.
See in the chart below. Sales are about even in the 4th quarter 2006 compared to 4th quarter 2005. Median price is up over that time in an environment (SD) where the median is down down over 6%.
SALES in Red
Median Price in Blue[img_assist|nid=2460|title=Poway sales and median price Dec 04 to Dec 06|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=349]
Is it simply that Poway is one of the last areas to fall ? Also looking at the early -mid 90’s Poway held up well then. Are the positives (good schools, etc) such that Poway will fall much less than other places, making a Decision to sell and rent less effective there ?
January 19, 2007 at 3:02 PM #43857Participantaarrrrg….
FSD I just typed out a long reply and I submitted it and the stupid site crashed on me…Anyways I see your point. I “think” the diversity of Poway housing factors into it more…
My guess for this particular case (Dec yoy) is due to the high ends of the sample. December of 06, the top 5 sales were 1.18M, 1.2M 1.2M 1.74M and 2.075M while December or 05 top 5 sales were 920k, 940k 985k 1.085M 1.71M.
Your right these problems should scale over every zip but I don’t believe most zips have the diversity that Poway does.
Anyways that is just my guess…
January 19, 2007 at 5:33 PM #43863ParticipantSD R –
Yes, there are higher end sales, perhaps do to lagging strength of move-up buyers. However, why are these move-up buyers in Poway, when they have already abandoned large swaths of the county.
I think there is something in the water there.
January 19, 2007 at 7:04 PM #43865Bugs
Participant“The Market in San Diego County” is actually about 100 little market segments. Loren Nancarrow would call them “micro markets”. While they are all connected they do move at different paces. During a declining market the less desirable areas and less desirable homes will pave the way for the others, and the better homes in the better areas will suffer a little less.
Poway has always been a desirable area because of its highly rated schools and its relatively young housing stock, so it should come as no surprise that it won’t get as beat up as Escondido or San Marcos to the north. There will still be losses over the long run, though; they’ll just be at the lighter end of the scale.
January 19, 2007 at 8:23 PM #43867ParticipantFSD I see what you mean. I don’t have any answers though… Like you said, it could be that sparkling poway springs water…
January 19, 2007 at 8:55 PM #43869Anonymous
GuestPoway water must be better than La Jolla water, because La Jolla prices (resale homes, only) sure aren’t holding up:
[img_assist|nid=2462|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=267]
Breaks my heart to see Oct-Dec. ’06 La Jolla prices back at Oct.-Dec. ’04 levels.
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