Lots of posters here are touting their astute purchases and sales, all made with perfect timing.
Except me.
I’ll admit to having terrible timing, and as an economist, that is embarrassing. However, I believe in letting it all hang out, so here it is.
In 2006 I bought into the gated community of Santaluz. The house proceeded to fall 40%, putting it clearly underwater. The only consolation was a terrific loan from the hated (and deservedly so) Chase Bank. It was tied to the 5-year Treasury Bond rate, so my interest rate remains about 2.7%.
Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts–seldom right, always confident.
I was in good company: Fed chairman Greenspan, Bernanke, many others.
Fortunately the house is now a bit above the purchase price, and my commercial and apartment properties have done well.
It has been good to read all these posts from old-timers. It seems the discussions then were more substantial when the bubble was building and then bursting.
I suspect we are in another bubble.
Trust me, I’m an economist.