I don’t think of this area as being an early indicator of anything. It is centrally located relative to good employment and will be among the last areas affected by a downward trend. So. Carlsbad will suffer more than CV. CV is not on the margins at all. About the only thing it can indicate is the reach of the current trend – when things go bad in CV it will be proof that there is no refuge from a regional decline.

The people who have the means to do so will dig in and they will ride it out, as they should. For the most part the only people who are selling now are doing so because they have no other choice.

Pricing will still be relational. The $900k house in CV that’s exactly like the $850k house in So. Carlsbad isn’t going to stay at $900k at the same time the Carlsbad house drops to $700k. Same goes for the Carlsbad house in relation to the San Elijo house that settles at $500k. People pay extra to get extra, and in a declining market that baseline is established at the bottom, not the top.