Interesting post Stan… “have a take…don’t suck” tg knows where that one is from…
On the one hand, what has happened in the last few weeks has happened quickly but on the other hand many posters here have been calling for this stuff to happen months and even a year ago. So to them, this is long overdue and cannot happen fast enough. I think that housing (on it’s own) just moves to slow to really force anything quick to happen. Now if there is that catalyst that can really prime the pump, it would be either substantial unemployment and/or a credit crunch that would really be tough. Yes the glimpses of what we had last week were eye openers but IMO we need that to happen and stay sustained and tack on another point or two on the rates. Then yes that could push the market into a chunk down situation. I think that would also serve to polarize the sellers much more then they are now. Sellers who are on the fence about selling would bail out of the market altogether and definitely choose to ride it out. Other sellers with large equity stakes who don’t have to move would do the same. Those that have to sell would do so and lower the asking price very quickly. Additionally the REO prices would come down fast, much faster then they have been in quick manner. Anyways with all that said and even if it did happen, I think the recovery would take awhile. True alot of properties may be snapped up quick by the “haves” while the “have nots” become renters, but I don’t think the market will snap up into an appreciation mode for awhile.
Also there is still the white elephant of the existing ARM Resets and such…
