Cabinboy seems to have a very high opinion of himself and a very low opinion of everyone else. According to him, only the professionals are capable of being right (even though almost all economists were wrong about GDP) and us stupid Piggingtons who sold our houses at the peak did so purely by chance.

It sounds like Cabinboy is a Financial Advisor who is proud of the fact that he has been in the market the last couple of months. I hope that everyone on Piggingtons has made money. I sold in May and took great profits. At least half of the stocks I sold have not returned to the price where I sold them. The other half are above where I sold them. However, when you calculate the added profit I made with half my stocks, minus the additional value of the ones that have gone up, plus the interest I have earned over the last six months, I’m about break even. Go figure.

I will admit, however, that if I had bought in August with the proceeds of my sales in May, I could have made even more money. Most people who are pointing the stupid finger, however, did not sell at the high in May and rebuy at the low. Their profit for the interim is the difference between the two (very simplified since everyone’s portfolio is different).

There are many economists out there who speak absolute rubbish! Infact, I would say an above average number of seasoned pros have no idea what the hell they are talking about. One of the top business schools in the country, UCLA Anderson, has made absolutely contradictory predictions 6-months apart… in early March they said housing was going to crash 15% or more, now they say it’s going to be flat even though predictions based on market fundamentals are the same for both time periods. Seems like someone paid them off.

You have to also keep in mind that many economists have unethical industry bias..for instance the report that came out of Harvard University recently on the state of the Housing Market is an absolute joke and was financed by the National Association of Realtors. Harvard University economists selling themselves to cheap scam artists like the NAR is highly unethical.

It’s better to absorb knowledge from all sources and then make your own judgement.

This board is good for seeing others’ ideas. I doubt that any intelligent person would blindly follow any advice dispensed here. For that matter, I think it is foolish to depend solely on any single source for advice.

My Advice for asset allocation
35% Cash
35% stocks
35% Property

That gives you a 5% head start on everybody else 🙂

I think Kev374 summed it up:

“It’s better to absorb knowledge from all sources and then make your own judgement.”

Cabinboy, if your argument is correct, Rich should just take down the forum since everybody here either has all four skills you describe and doesn’t need anybody else’s analysis, or they don’t have these skills and will blindly follow somebody’s advice here and get in trouble and end up on the street.

“Six months of returns” Where does that fit in after talking about the limitations of fundamental analysis?!?
First you say that fundamental analysis loses it’s value over short time periods (which I agree with wholeheartedly), but then you want to compare 6 month returns?!?

I think that the forums are a valuable source of ideas, no matter who they come from. If people want to go 100% gold, that’s their business and I may not agree with them, but I certaintly want to hear their argument about why they are doing it, I might learn something.

I don’t think people here are reading posts and then opening a new window and logging into E-Trade to dump what Powayseller talked about last week and buy what jg talked about today. Give us more credit than that.

Great post, cabinboy.

I think it was sensible, well-written advice based on 4 important but not well understood principals, and not one bit arrogant.