You underestimate the amount of money floating in the Bay Area…
People have been saying this about the SFBA since the gold rush. This hasn’t changed the propensity for bubbles and bursts.
Secondly – there is room to build relatively close to SF. Oakland. East Palo Alto. Areas need to gentrify, but this will happen.[/quote]
spdrun, if you mean by “gentrifying” building up or increasing density, save for city centers, I just don’t see any significant upzoning happening in those areas. Past Boards of Supervisors and city officials in SM and SC Counties never allowed in or permitted huge multifamily units for very good reasons. Any city/county leader who makes a motion to do so now will undoubtedly face the fierce opposition of their constituency to any attempts at upzoning.
OTOH, Oakland (and its close-in small surrounding cities) ARE in the process of gentrification … to their betterment, IMO. Positioned in East Bay, Oakland is a completely different animal than SF and SV (where “East Palo Alto” is located – partially zoned industrial). Although hilly going eastward, there are many areas of Oakland which could still be redeveloped. (On a much smaller scale, compare some parts of Oakland to SD’s Dtn and East Village prior to redevelopment taking place.)
I’ve had “saved searches” in realtor.com on SFRs in 12 close-in cities (encompassing 18 zip codes) in the bay area (6 peninsula + 6 East Bay) for over two years now and only rarely does a listing trickle in my in box (by the time I click on it, its usually pending or removed). My sf req was set at 1200 and my garage req was 1 car. I had no age preference and my upper price limit was set at $800K. The truth is, the vast majority of SFR listings in the close-in bay area which are priced under $1,200,000 have an accepted offer prior to or simultaneous to being placed in the MLS.
This has been going on for ten years minimum and I don’t see it abating any time soon. They’re not making any more land there.
spdrun, those large swaths of “vacant land” in the peninsula (and in ALL bay area counties) you’re seeing on your map-reading expeditions from your comfy perch in Manhattan, NYC are protected. By that I mean they are National or state preserves and/or parkland. As such, they will NEVER be built on so there goes your “gentrification theory.”
