Perry, it’s true that people make predictions all the time. I worked as an economist and a statistician in different lives, so I can easily smell a rat when people start throwing around exact dates or numbers. I guess it’s just human nature to attach a number to our beliefs, so that we sound as if we know what we’re talking about. But someone with data experience will just roll his eyes and laugh later.

Your comment about rejecting bad news has more to do with political issues. I’m not saying that the RE debacle doesn’t have political implications!