Well, since sdr is – Piggington's Econo-Almanac

August 14, 2007 at 2:39 PM #75143

Participant

Well, since sdr is determined to make me work – and not wanting to fall behind again!

The plots are getting interesting, and maybe a little harder (or easier) to read. The first to show what we have been seeing all along. Short sales continue to grow faster than total listings. Basically every week this entire year, the percent change in short sales has been larger than for listings. We can see that in the first plot with the to lines somehwat superimposed – in the past few weeks these have really started to separate.

I redid the third plot to update the trendline for short sales – that is difficult to really explain what it is saying. The trend line was generated using only 2007 data (excluding the strange month at the end of 2006) – excluding that makes the slope greater than it would be so it would be considered “conservative” statistically to exclude them. That being said, the trend has stayed pretty close to that slope all year – until the last few weeks. In July, the short sales jumped to the upper side of the line (increased faster than the “norm”) but then stayed flat again for a couple of weeks. Over the last 3 weeks that has changed again and the short sales have increased faster than the norm for that time. This is not really seen in the precent change data. Those data have basically stayed flat, but are always positive. The next few weeks to months will be very interesting –