I copied this from Mish’s site. Anyone care to put some dates (time line) to the 5 stages of grief?
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Thomas Lawler, a Virginia-based housing consultant, thinks South Florida’s real estate market has entered what the respected “death-and-dying” psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross called the first of five stages of grief.
1. “Denial in a previously hot real estate market occurs when a home listed at a high price doesn’t sell quickly, even though just a few months ago houses sold in just a few weeks,” Lawler says in his July 19 Lawler Economic & Housing Consulting newsletter. “The home buyer says, ‘This is weird, but I’m sure it’s just a glitch,’ and does not alter his or her asking price.
2. “Anger occurs when, after a few months pass, the house still hasn’t sold, and little interest has been shown,” he continues.
3. “Bargaining begins as the home buyer starts to offer a few incentives, agrees to more open houses, starts to fix up the house to make it show better, and actually agrees to lower the listing price a bit.
4. “Depression starts to set in when the house has been on the market for about four months or so, and the seller realizes that his or her net worth simply isn’t going to be as high as he or she thought.
5. “Finally, acceptance occurs when the seller realizes that homes prices have fallen; that he or she will not get peak price of what is now six months or more ago; and that if he or she wants to sell the home, the asking price needs to be adjusted downward considerably.”
This process takes time, Lawler says, which is why home prices in hot markets that cool fast don’t immediately start falling.
I agree it takes time. Far more time than the four months that Lawler is suggesting it takes for depression to set in. Depression does not set in after 4 months (except perhaps for flippers on the fringes). I think six years is more like it. In Japan it took 18 years. Why can’t it take four, six, or even ten years here? It can and it likely will.