Only one question of the experts.

When’s the last time you sold a house?

If they haven’t sold one in the last 12 months, their opinion should be questioned.

Unless they are on the street participating in what’s actually going on, they’re just guessing.

Jim the Realtor

I’ve made an effort, though I don’t push it. You’ll see me quoted occasionally, but it’s usually the toned-down version.

Earlier this year a reporter for the North County Times told me he wouldn’t print the obvious trend of a changing market because “he was tired of being wrong all the time”.

The U-T could blow the top off this story, yet you don’t hear a peep out of them. I’m not sure it’s due to them wanting to protect their real estate advertisers. I think this whole world is more concerned with CYA than risking being bold and telling it the way it is.

Jim the Realtor

I think you’ve found your calling for a career, Powayseller- freelance writer. I think that a reporter should play devil’s advocate a bit more and ask more pointed questions that require a well thought out answer. Softball questions such as, “how does the housing market look to you?” and then not following that question up, doesn’t cut it IMHO. Here’s what a typical phone call might look like:

Ms. Wedner: So, Joe Economist, what’s your outlook on the housing market so far this summer?

Joe Economist: Well, I think that all indicators point to a leveling off in median price, but it’s nothing to panic about…we are just getting back to more normal market prices.

Ms. Wedner: But isn’t the median price considered an infererior indicator because it tends to lag behind true market conditions? And don’t you see some potential concerns with the increasing inventory of homes and the latest population figures from the US Census that show San Diego is actually losing people?

This is just an example of how a reporter can actually put a little elbow grease into it and dig for the scoop on a story, rather than just lob softballs. Keep in mind, I was able to come up with these questions in about 5 minutes, and I am a ham-and-egger when it comes to this stuff! Ms. Wedner is a business analyst and it is her JOB to do this! Is the LA Times hiring?

Hi all,

I’m new to this site so take it easy on me. Along the lines of what should reporters ask there expects…I think it would be helpful if wee could keep track of past news articles. To that effect I have a couple that quote LAY. What she said in the first article and her recent “turn” give some insight to her view of current market conditions.

Panelists see housing market slowing North County Times – North San Diego and Southwest Riverside County News – NCTimes_com – Californian_com.htm

Note the last paragraph in light of recent increases in inventory.

“Price increases will slow, and may even be flat in some areas of the state, said the speakers, including Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. However, they said, economic fundamentals state and nationwide appear strong enough to prevent a downturn. And San Diego County is likely to put in a solid performance, although there’s reason to worry down the road.

Nearly all the others speaking said emphatically that there is no real estate “bubble.” The lone dissenter was Alan Gin, a USD professor of economics —- but even he said he doesn’t think it’s going to burst now “or in the foreseeable future.”

“There is one thing you need to get declining prices —- just one —- you need too much supply,” Appleton-Young said. “You need more homes for sale than there are buyers.”

And of course her (LAY) latest take on the market…

Housing Expert ‘Soft Landing’ Off Mark – Los Angeles Times.htm

“The Realtors association last month lowered its 2006 sales prediction from a 2% slip to a 16.8% drop. That was when Appleton-Young first told the San Diego Union-Tribune that she didn’t feel comfortable any longer using “soft landing.”

“I’m sorry I ever made that comment,” she said Thursday. “When I get my new term, I’ll let you know.”

If there’s one group in California still unreservedly bullish on real estate, it might be the throngs lining up to take the licensing exams.

The state Department of Real Estate recently reported that the total number of agents in the state passed 500,000 in May for the first time. That’s one agent for every 55 adults in the state.

Appleton-Young had no qualms about predicting a hard landing here: “We’re expecting a fairly significant shakeout.”

The shakeout could be very ugly depending on how many transactions are not just bad business but illegal/ criminal. Unfortunately those stories won’t be newsworthy until people start losing their homes.