I almost certainly wouldn’t pay down the rate right now, but that’s just because I have a sense that rates indeed will drop next week(ish), or that they at least won’t get worse. It doesn’t sound like you’re in your contingency period, so it wouldn’t seem like there’s a rush.

The other half of this is just the notion of paying down the rate in general and that’s mostly a math problem. Don’t forget to factor in the tax effects on the lower interest payments (i.e. $10 savings is really like $7) and don’t forget that interest part of your payment actually goes down every month. Not a big difference if you’ll recoup in two years, but pushes it out even further if you’re getting up to five/six (although at that point you probably need to question the benefit anyway).