I’m too chicken for this in I’m too chicken for this in real life but I voted for yes, short the stock…
The thing that made me decide was the recent exec being fired kinda divulged there’s something internal going on in terms of direction…That’s not a good sign….
The-Shoveler
November 1, 2012 @
7:51 AM
I saw an article where some I saw an article where some company (not available in the U.S. yet) is selling a ipad type device running on linux OS or android OS (forgot which), selling it for $40 dollars (yes that’s right I did not leave a zero off), currently they have to connect it to cell phone, but they have one for $100 that uses wi-fi.
Google coming out with I think 200 dollar Lap-Top running Chrome type OS, this type of thing will only become cheaper.
The I-Clones are coming the I-Clones are coming,
SK in CV
November 1, 2012 @
8:29 AM
Amazon is selling at 300 Amazon is selling at 300 times earnings.
Facebook is selling at almost 200 times earnings.
Google is selling at almost 21 times earnings.
Microsoft is selling at almost 16 times earning.
Apple is selling at under 14 times earnings.
and just for fun:
Catapillar is selling at 9 times earnings.
Ford is selling at 2.5 times earnings.
Which one is under-priced?
The-Shoveler
November 1, 2012 @
8:48 AM
The Problem with Tech (and
The Problem with Tech (and working in Tech),
Is you can become so yesterday so quickly.
Apple is not IBM where they have huge service revenue
enron_by_the_sea
November 1, 2012 @
10:25 AM
I think Apple’s long march to I think Apple’s long march to dominance has finally been halted so Apple stock will probably not double from here. In order for Apple to double from here they need to invent another new category of product. They could do it but what are the chances? Or another 1999-style stock bubble can double Apple but what are the chances of that?
However that does not mean that it is a short at present levels either. Low PE, cash on hand, dividends and still-decent revenue growth rate will put a floor under its stock price …
no_such_reality
November 1, 2012 @
10:29 AM
Tech isn’t about tech. It’s Tech isn’t about tech. It’s about marketing and fashion. It’s about stroking egos.
IMHO, Apple has found just the right level of dumbed-down. Their users feel like they’re tech-savvy movers and shakers, while the underlying tech prevents them from doing anything that takes them off the carefully maintained corporate revenue path.
Most people can’t root their phones and don’t want to.
blahblahblah
November 1, 2012 @
7:11 PM
Apple is Apple is BMW/Mercedes.
Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.
1) Corporate IT world
2) Television
The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.
But if they’re looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.
spdrun
November 1, 2012 @
7:17 PM
Actually, Apple’s desktop Actually, Apple’s desktop OS’s are hugely flexible and relatively hacker-friendly. It’s just iOS that’s deliberately crippled, due to the legacy of a senile, ill old man that should have resigned a year earlier.
The sad thing is that a system can be BOTH user-friendly AND open, and Apple doesn’t seem to acknowledge that with iOS.
SK in CV
November 1, 2012 @
10:10 PM
CONCHO wrote:Apple is [quote=CONCHO]Apple is BMW/Mercedes.
Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.
1) Corporate IT world
2) Television
The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.
But if they’re looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.[/quote]
The likelihood of Apple’s entrance into the corporate IT world is pretty strong. It’s one of the issues addressed during their earnings phone call last week that didn’t get much press, but investors loved it for about 45 seconds. The pentagon just ended their exclusive with RIM. My only hesitancy to call Apple’s entry into the enterprise market as having a huge potential is that RIM, which had that market locked up for so long, didn’t generate numbers big enough to move the needle much for Apple. But it could be significant, at least sufficient to add to growth for another couple years.
spdrun
November 1, 2012 @
10:15 PM
Phones? Tablets? What about Phones? Tablets? What about selling the corporate desktop as well?
I was always surprised that US government organizations had such a strong connection to RIM. After all, all ‘berry traffic is passed through servers controlled by a foreign company.
zk
November 1, 2012 @
11:44 PM
“Yes: but markets are “Yes: but markets are irrationale, so you’re asking for it if you short.”
I vote for this one.
And I think we’ve got something with that new word you used.
Rationale: a reasoned exposition, esp one defining the fundamental reasons for a course of action, belief, etc (dictionary.com)
Irrationale: What a woman uses instead of a reasoned exposition. (zk)
I kid because I love.
scaredyclassic
November 2, 2012 @
7:24 AM
well, im not even qualified well, im not even qualified to vote, but im gonna go buy a new ipad today, if bestbuy has one. I have a few hundred dollars in bestbuy credits from a dispute and I want to spend them before the company goes bankrupt, voids the credits or, most likely, I misplace them. take this info into account before shorting the stock.
The-Shoveler
November 2, 2012 @
7:51 AM
I can just hear the laughter I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”
blahblahblah
November 2, 2012 @
10:38 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:I can just [quote=The-Shoveler]I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”[/quote]
This won’t phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don’t like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc… use them.
Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted “aspirational” consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.
I’m not saying this is an accurate perception, it’s just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.
outtamojo
November 2, 2012 @
12:03 PM
CONCHO wrote:The-Shoveler [quote=CONCHO][quote=The-Shoveler]I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”[/quote]
This won’t phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don’t like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc… use them.
Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted “aspirational” consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.
I’m not saying this is an accurate perception, it’s just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.[/quote]
I trade aapl options. Stock I trade aapl options. Stock is undervalued now and going through a correction before a massive rally.
This correction by the way is smaller (% wise) than the one that occurred in the middle of the year. Market makers are squeezing every last drop out off options (with Jan expiry) and stock holders.
$650 in 3-4 weeks, around $700 around Jan. $1000 by 2014.
Due your own diligence before buying.
The-Shoveler
November 2, 2012 @
11:42 AM
That’s my problem I guess,
That’s my problem I guess,
I’m just not cool enough !!
poorgradstudent
November 2, 2012 @
12:36 PM
Is Apples heyday over? Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.
Tickles
November 2, 2012 @
1:11 PM
Apple has about 2-5 years of Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.
spdrun
November 2, 2012 @
1:18 PM
Except that they sell Except that they sell crippleware in the form of iOS. Google chooses to cripple their OS much less. Sooner than later, people are getting wise to that fact, plus you can’t argue with the fact that Android devices offer much more bang for a buck.
It’s a shame that they didn’t become less anally controlling after Jobsie left the building.
patb
December 15, 2012 @
10:19 PM
Tickles wrote:Apple has about [quote=Tickles]Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.[/quote]
iPhone/iPad/IOS is now 6 years old.
Macbook/iMac/MacPro are mature products.
iTunes now has competitors with Amazon/Google…
Apple needs something new and amazing.
Look we have an iPad 1, but, we didn’t rush out to buy an iPad 2,3 or mini.
Heck even if they make the improvements we want (8×11) format, thinner, longer battery life.
There is no reason to replace the iPad we have.
great company great products, but i have an Android phone, why do i want the iPhone?
Tickles
November 2, 2012 @
1:17 PM
poorgradstudent wrote:Is [quote=poorgradstudent]Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.[/quote]
Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.
livinincali
November 7, 2012 @
10:04 AM
It’s relatively obvious that It’s relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it’s hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don’t equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let’s take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.
My guess is that AAPL will have it’s all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn’t already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don’t have and want. Right now I haven’t seen it and I don’t expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won’t get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.
SK in CV
November 7, 2012 @
10:20 AM
livinincali wrote:It’s [quote=livinincali]It’s relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it’s hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don’t equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let’s take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.
My guess is that AAPL will have it’s all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn’t already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don’t have and want. Right now I haven’t seen it and I don’t expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won’t get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.[/quote]
iphones make up less than 50% of Apple’s revenues. Next comes ipads, followed by both desktop and laptop computers. The biggest reason that they’ve been able to sustain their growth is because they’ve come out with new products. Can they do it forever? It would seem unlikely, and it’s pretty likely that they have hit a place where continued growth in their existing product lines is pretty limited.
But none of that makes them a bad future play. They’ve proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won’t grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.
livinincali
November 8, 2012 @
8:06 AM
SK in CV wrote:
But none of [quote=SK in CV]
But none of that makes them a bad future play. They’ve proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won’t grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.[/quote]
It depends on what you’re looking for. In general when a mega brand ends it’s growth phase it tends to have it’s stock price chopped in half from the peak and it usually takes a few years for the value investors to replace the growth investors. Look at KO or MSFT. They’ll be a right place to buy AAPL for value investing. Probably around $400/sh but they may not get that low for awhile because there’s still a lot of hope in the company.
Coronita
November 2, 2012 @
1:00 PM
Well, it’s below 200 day Well, it’s below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn…
Tickles
November 2, 2012 @
1:16 PM
deleted deleted
Tickles
November 2, 2012 @
1:17 PM
flu wrote:Well, it’s below [quote=flu]Well, it’s below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn…[/quote]
Best thing that could have happened. AAPL has reached capitulation on technical and valuation fronts.
Doofrat
November 2, 2012 @
1:20 PM
I think aapl’s valuation is I think aapl’s valuation is largely based on the innovations of a single person who is not with the company anymore. Look at what happened to Apple the first time Jobs left.
According to Trefis http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.trefis&from=search# (don’t know how accurate that is though) a full 70% of Apple’s valuation comes from products developed in the last 5 years. Products developed before that time account for 12% of valuation. Lesson: unless Apple keeps producing new groundbreaking products, its valuation isn’t headed in a good direction.
My prediction:
I think they will keep churning out iPads, iPhones, iPods, sales on iTunes, and high margin boutique laptops and computers for several years at least as competitors catch up. My guess is that they will eventually have to release their full computer OS tablet to stay competitive when/if somebody else’s becomes viable, but that will be their last big innovation and even this will likely eat into their highly profitable laptop and desktop market.
I hope I’m wrong.
blahblahblah
November 2, 2012 @
2:11 PM
iOS is only crippled for iOS is only crippled for techno-nerds who want to play with different browsers or try compiling their OS and watching it crash to show their friends how smart and tech-savvy they are. People like this make up about %0.0000001 of the market, although the tech press will have you believe otherwise because they depend on ad revenue from Apple’s competitors to stay alive.
Apple tightly controls the software on their devices because software quality is a huge part of overall product quality and consumer perception. Microsoft was viewed as having poor quality for many years because they didn’t control a lot of the device driver software that PCs used. This wasn’t Microsoft’s fault and was no reflection on their quality, which has always been very high. But facts like that don’t matter in the marketplace. Customers saw PCs crash (almost always due to non-MS device driver bugs), saw the MS Windows label, and made the mental association that “MS=bugs”. The fact that it’s incorrect doesn’t matter, the damage is done and will take years to undo.
Apple “cripples” their products primarily to prevent them from crashing and to control the user experience. This prevents Apple from being associated with poor product quality. High quality is the ONLY thing that will keep them alive, since their prices are high relative to the competition. No one would buy a Mercedes if they didn’t have good quality. Does Mercedes cripple their cars because they don’t make it easy to swap transmissions?
Now selling cheaper than Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.
SK in CV
December 18, 2012 @
10:15 AM
SK in CV wrote:Now selling [quote=SK in CV]Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.[/quote]
Cha ching here too. Bot back the put for a nickel. +$3,400. 4 days. I think 5 clicks.
Coronita
December 14, 2012 @
9:25 AM
I think qualcomm is a better I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70
an
December 14, 2012 @
10:14 AM
flu wrote:I think qualcomm is [quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.
Coronita
December 14, 2012 @
10:35 AM
AN wrote:flu wrote:I think [quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.
desmond
December 14, 2012 @
10:39 AM
I’d rather hear from I’d rather hear from Tickles……….
Coronita
December 17, 2012 @
6:58 AM
flu wrote:AN wrote:flu [quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.[/quote]
Cha ching
Coronita
December 18, 2012 @
9:17 AM
flu wrote:flu wrote:AN [quote=flu][quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.[/quote]
Cha ching[/quote]
I’m out @$63.11….
Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger… Not bad for 2 day’s of clicking….
an
December 18, 2012 @
9:29 AM
flu wrote:I’m out [quote=flu]I’m out @$63.11….
Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger… Not bad for 2 day’s of clicking….[/quote]
Not bad, but it’s now at $63.30. That would have been enough for a new set of tires and a track day paid admission :-D.
Coronita
December 14, 2012 @
10:48 AM
I know a few people that I know a few people that bought into apple’s hype at around $700/share just a few months ago, after listening to “analysts” saying it was going to $1000/share…
Ouch.
I’m wondering what’s really gonna happen if we have a broader market correction….Seems like even when the broader market is holding ok these days, appl can’t.
too many hedge funds holding too many hedge funds holding AAPL if they can’t meet their 2% annual fee, they will get a lot of redemptions
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
1:44 PM
Apple misses….
I think Apple misses….
I think their golden days are over.
no_such_reality
January 23, 2013 @
1:49 PM
delete. delete.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
2:30 PM
Apple down over 9% now Apple down over 9% now AH….
I think the egosystem around it’s going down also. Qualcomm AH is down also…
an
January 23, 2013 @
2:38 PM
I think the entire NASDAQ is I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
2:58 PM
AN wrote:I think the entire [quote=AN]I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.[/quote]
…Netflix is up…Bigtime…
Tomorrow seems like it’s gonna be very interesting.
patb
January 24, 2013 @
3:33 PM
AN wrote:I think the entire [quote=AN]I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.[/quote]
Aapl is like 20% of Nasdaq, with their big market cap, they drag around QQQ
something fierce.
Netflix isn’t big enough to move the needle yet
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
3:31 PM
apple down $55 ah @ apple down $55 ah @ 10%..
Man, tomorrow is gonna be a bloodbath.
Wonder what the hedgefunds are gonna do…
an
January 23, 2013 @
3:36 PM
Too bad I didn’t do what I Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
3:52 PM
AN wrote:Too bad I didn’t do [quote=AN]Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.[/quote]
next best thing would be to wait for a correction and buy stuff on the way up.
earlyretirement
January 23, 2013 @
3:57 PM
AN wrote:Too bad I didn’t do [quote=AN]Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.[/quote]
I sold the February 16 $500 Covered Calls yesterday and darn glad I did. I got $21 so that will help take the sting out. It will be interesting where it ends up by end of options expiration next month.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
4:03 PM
It’s kinda funny how this is It’s kinda funny how this is happening just when there articles about how people are starting to move money back into the markets…..
The-Shoveler
January 23, 2013 @
5:19 PM
flu wrote:It’s kinda funny [quote=flu]It’s kinda funny how this is happening just when there articles about how people are starting to move money back into the markets…..[/quote]
Makes no sense to pull the rug out until the majority sucker money is in. Just kidding sort of.
But somehow I think they would not let it crash until Europe is stable, hmmm maybe Europe is stable enough.
Yep no election to worry about, so maybe.
Also Pension funds were starting to recover, if the market were to crash… well.
The-Shoveler
January 23, 2013 @
5:21 PM
Quick, start the printer. Quick, start the printer.
moneymaker
January 24, 2013 @
9:12 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:Quick, [quote=The-Shoveler]Quick, start the printer.[/quote]
I was recently at the Bureau of Printing and Engraving and they said they can print $1 Billion dollars cash a day. Wow, I sure hope they aren’t doing that yet however.Supposedly 90% of what they print is replacing cash currently in circulation, not sure I believe that one.
an
January 24, 2013 @
9:29 AM
Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m staying out of AAPL right now too. Although, unlike flu, I’ve been fully invested in the market that last month, so I was a little nervous when everything was down in AH yesterday and futures for all 3 indexes were in the red. But looks like DOW & S&P are rewarding me today after all. I’m going to buy some more NOK today though, maybe a little more AGNC too.
earlyretirement
January 24, 2013 @
2:08 PM
AN wrote:Good luck ER. Like [quote=AN]Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m staying out of AAPL right now too. Although, unlike flu, I’ve been fully invested in the market that last month, so I was a little nervous when everything was down in AH yesterday and futures for all 3 indexes were in the red. But looks like DOW & S&P are rewarding me today after all. I’m going to buy some more NOK today though, maybe a little more AGNC too.[/quote]
Thanks AN. It was ugly today but I typically invest for the long haul and I don’t use margin at all. Fortunately I dumped most of my Apple a while back at much higher prices. I typically sell call options on it each month so that has really brought down the cost basis tremendously.
Man, NOK has been on a wild ride. I got called out of most of my NOK last month. The call option premiums were really amazing for a while. But with that spike up, most of my shares got called away. Same with SLV this past options expiration.
These days I don’t “swing for the fences” anymore like when I was younger. I typically just buy some stocks I think are beaten down and then sell the covered call options on them and if they get called away so be it. The returns have been solid.
an
January 24, 2013 @
2:14 PM
earlyretirement wrote:Thanks [quote=earlyretirement]Thanks AN. It was ugly today but I typically invest for the long haul and I don’t use margin at all. Fortunately I dumped most of my Apple a while back at much higher prices. I typically sell call options on it each month so that has really brought down the cost basis tremendously.
Man, NOK has been on a wild ride. I got called out of most of my NOK last month. The call option premiums were really amazing for a while. But with that spike up, most of my shares got called away. Same with SLV this past options expiration.
These days I don’t “swing for the fences” anymore like when I was younger. I typically just buy some stocks I think are beaten down and then sell the covered call options on them and if they get called away so be it. The returns have been solid.[/quote]
You’re right, NOK have been on a wild ride. Luckily, I’ve been on the right side of that trade. I consider NOK as being beaten down and are primed to a come back if they can execute. AAPL on the hand, I don’t think have been beaten down enough yet. Maybe when it his mid $200. But I just don’t believe in the longevity of AAPL. I see AAPL vs GOOG today is like AAPL vs MSFT in the 80s. AAPL have a nice head start but we know how that story played out.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
4:06 PM
Armh is off it’s high of Armh is off it’s high of $40…
Intel is treading water at $21….
Nxpi (well won’t really be affected since they aren’t an apple supplier for obvious reasons)
Anyone else?
an
January 23, 2013 @
4:10 PM
NASDAQ future is down 44 NASDAQ future is down 44 points. I wonder if this down turn will have legs or will other companies come out with good earning and stem the tide. We’ll have to wait and see. 2 Quarter in a row for AAPL. This might be the beginning of the end for them.
afx114
January 23, 2013 @
4:27 PM
Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!! Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!! SELL!! I for one am sick and tired of AAPL posting record-breaking profit, revenue, and sales. That’s just not the kind of company you should invest in……
an
January 23, 2013 @
4:37 PM
afx114 wrote:Quick everyone, [quote=afx114]Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!! SELL!! I for one am sick and tired of AAPL posting record-breaking profit, revenue, and sales. That’s just not the kind of company you should invest in……[/quote]MSFT have been posting record profit a lot lately too. But that didn’t translate to stock price rising.
SK in CV
January 23, 2013 @
5:15 PM
AN wrote:NASDAQ future is [quote=AN]NASDAQ future is down 44 points. I wonder if this down turn will have legs or will other companies come out with good earning and stem the tide. We’ll have to wait and see. 2 Quarter in a row for AAPL. This might be the beginning of the end for them.[/quote]
Beginning of the end of what? Record iphone sales. Record volume. Close to record profit. They now have $137B cash on hand, more cash on hand than HP’s annual revenue. They always kill guidance. Now selling at below 10x earnings. Lower than MSFT at about 14. Lower than NFLX at over 130. Amazon? 3500x.
Crappy company. They obviously have no future.
Altera missed. Check Point hit. MSI beat estimates (before todays open) SNDK is getting hammered after hours. Symantec hit. Western Digital hit revenue, missed earnings, down a bit after hours. Pretty mixed bag in tech results today. Based on earnings, its hard to say the market is overpriced. But the market has issues.
an
January 23, 2013 @
9:15 PM
SK in CV wrote:Beginning of [quote=SK in CV]Beginning of the end of what? [/quote]End of the stock’s stratospheric run. Whether their history will repeat or not, I don’t know. But I think their stock’s performance over the last 10 years won’t be repeated over the next 10 years.
[quote=SK in CV]Record iphone sales. Record volume. Close to record profit. They now have $137B cash on hand, more cash on hand than HP’s annual revenue. They always kill guidance. Now selling at below 10x earnings. Lower than MSFT at about 14. Lower than NFLX at over 130. Amazon? 3500x.
Crappy company. They obviously have no future.
Altera missed. Check Point hit. MSI beat estimates (before todays open) SNDK is getting hammered after hours. Symantec hit. Western Digital hit revenue, missed earnings, down a bit after hours. Pretty mixed bag in tech results today. Based on earnings, its hard to say the market is overpriced. But the market has issues.[/quote]Did I say APPL is a crappy company? Hyperbolic much? However, like flu said, there’s Android and not to mention Windows. Competition up until early last year is VERY different than the competition they’re facing now. I’d like to revisit this thread 2 years from now and see where AAPL is. Right now though, damn, it must of hurt to lose 10% in one afternoon.
SK in CV
January 23, 2013 @
9:50 PM
AN wrote:I say APPL is a [quote=AN]I say APPL is a crappy company? Hyperbolic much? However, like flu said, there’s Android and not to mention Windows. Competition up until early last year is VERY different than the competition they’re facing now. I’d like to revisit this thread 2 years from now and see where AAPL is. Right now though, damn, it must of hurt to lose 10% in one afternoon.[/quote]
No, not a crappy company. What you said was the same thing someone said after last quarters earnings, before they had record volume and record profits.
This might be the beginning of the end for them.
Which one of us is hyperbolic?
an
January 23, 2013 @
10:01 PM
Where was their stock after Where was their stock after last earning and where do you think their stock will be tomorrow. MSFT had record blah blah blah at their peak too. What happen to their stocks over the lazy 10 years all the while breaking new record earnings? I was referring to their stocks, not the actual company as a whole.
SK in CV
January 23, 2013 @
11:07 PM
Let’s see where Microsoft is. Let’s see where Microsoft is. The second largest tech company by market cap in the world. Is it a dead company? Apple is more than twice as valuable.
Where do you think Apple will be in market cap a year from now? Something other than the largest? Is that what the end looks like?
an
January 23, 2013 @
11:39 PM
SK in CV wrote:Let’s see [quote=SK in CV]Let’s see where Microsoft is. The second largest tech company by market cap in the world. Is it a dead company? Apple is more than twice as valuable.
Where do you think Apple will be in market cap a year from now? Something other than the largest? Is that what the end looks like?[/quote]
Lets see where MSFT stock was 10 years ago: ~$24. Lets see where MSFT is today: $27.61. That’s 15% increase in 10 years. You can do A LOT better than that buying a 10 years CD 10 years ago. I could care less what their market cap is. I’m an investor, I only care what their stock price will do in the future. It’s not like I’m the CEO and have some ego tied to the company’s market cap. Same goes for AAPL. With AAPL’s war chest, they’re not going anywhere. But that’s irrelevant to me. So, why does market cap matter so much to you?
earlyretirement
January 24, 2013 @
7:25 AM
Call me crazy but I just Call me crazy but I just loaded up on AAPL this morning. I call things like this “buying opportunities”.
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
7:37 AM
earlyretirement wrote:Call me [quote=earlyretirement]Call me crazy but I just loaded up on AAPL this morning. I call things like this “buying opportunities”.[/quote]
Good luck ER. I’m staying out of this one….
Me, I’m trying to find an reentry point for Qualcomm and I’m considering adding more to NXPI and ARMH if there’s any sort of correction…
I picked up Marvel MRVL purely based on speculation this morning. (It’s a shit company but hey, let’ see how the patent lawsuit works out…)…
..Edit… My capital one order also executed this morning too at 56.25, as was as dupont at 47.82….
We’ll see.
Market is holding pretty well to my surprise (dismay). lol.
earlyretirement
January 24, 2013 @
7:52 AM
Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll agree with pundits that Apple isn’t the same company without Jobs. And they have had their share of blunders lately. But the company is still a cash cow. Some of these other companies out there with their insane valuations or tremendous debt make me shake my head.
I still believe they have some amazing things in the pipeline coming in the future.
I’m fairly conservative on stocks and mostly sell covered call options every month if I can.
It sounds like you stay really active with stocks. I had those days in my younger years but now I lost my “pattern day trader” flag. 🙂
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
8:13 AM
earlyretirement wrote:Thanks [quote=earlyretirement]Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll agree with pundits that Apple isn’t the same company without Jobs. And they have had their share of blunders lately. But the company is still a cash cow. Some of these other companies out there with their insane valuations or tremendous debt make me shake my head.
I still believe they have some amazing things in the pipeline coming in the future.
I’m fairly conservative on stocks and mostly sell covered call options every month if I can.
It sounds like you stay really active with stocks. I had those days in my younger years but now I lost my “pattern day trader” flag. :)[/quote]
I adopt my trading pattern based on what things are doing… For the past two years, it’s been nothing but a yo-yo…. So I’m one of those yo-yo jokers right now…
But even with bad news like today, I’ve got a feeling things are gonna start marching upwards…Markets don’t seem to care about bad news these days… Maybe it hits individual companies, but the indexes keep rising…Oh well….
The-Shoveler
January 23, 2013 @
6:17 PM
I would say the law of very I would say the law of very large numbers starts to work against you as well eventually.
Somehow iphones/iclones will start to become a flooded commodity at some point (IMO), are we there yet? I don’t know, I do know I have kept my cell phone 4 years now, got a nice rebate last time I signed up for keeping my old phone.
Coronita
January 23, 2013 @
7:13 PM
Samsung… Enough said.
The Samsung… Enough said.
The fact is that Google can out innovate Apple on the smartphone market at this point. They can work with more than one OEM at the same time to develop multiple products at the same time.
Just look at the pipeline right now.
Galaxy Nexus is on the way out, you have a Nexus 4 made by LG (crap by the way), Nexus 7 made by Asus, Nexus 10 from Samsung and pretty soon there will be a Nexus 5 and most likely a Nexus 7.7… If they can get manufacturers to release 4-6 devices per season, that’s some serious damage….Not even counting on Windows entry…
My 40-50% cash position just devalued more….Stupid stupid stupid.
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
9:54 AM
Hey I just bought VFITX Hey I just bought VFITX (intermediate treasuries) from the cash I get from rental income + tenant’s deposit….Lol… 2.xx%….
an
January 24, 2013 @
10:56 AM
Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as of right now. I think they just lost over $50B in market cap in just 1 day.
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
11:03 AM
AN wrote:Wow, AAPL is down [quote=AN]Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as of right now. I think they just lost over $50B in market cap in just 1 day.[/quote]
It ain’t gonna be over I’m afraid. If there are hedge funds heavily invested there, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dump some as well…
It’s gonna drag down probably appl’s suppliers in the short term until they figure out which suppliers have been affected or not…. Longer term I don’t think companies like Qcom have issues because they supply to just about everyone, not just apple.. But it might be a good buying opportunity for companies like such….
nxpi is safe because apple decided not to put NFC into their phones/tablets to begin with….heh heh…
QCOM only supply modem chip QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.
afx114
January 24, 2013 @
11:22 AM
Since announcing that is is Since announcing that is is the most profitable company in the entire history of humanity, “Apple’s market value has fallen by the combined market value of two Nokias plus two RIMs. @tomgara”
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
11:47 AM
afx114 wrote:Since announcing [quote=afx114]Since announcing that is is the most profitable company in the entire history of humanity, “Apple’s market value has fallen by the combined market value of two Nokias plus two RIMs. @tomgara”[/quote]
All that matters is what your entry price was and what your exit price is…. Everything else doesn’t really matter. Anyone who entered at $550+ pretty much got screwed. Trying to make up 18% loss is anything but easy in this environment.
Just wait for the experts to start their downgrades from buy to hold. MSM start writing articles articles about how apple is losing it’s edge, and throw this once darling company under the PR bus….
Real numbers don’t matter. It’s all in the perception…
livinincali
January 24, 2013 @
11:50 AM
AN wrote:QCOM only supply [quote=AN]QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.[/quote]
I personally think the growth in mobile hardware is pretty much done at this point. They’ll still sell mobile devices but the growth rate in mobile hardware is going to decline going forward. Over 50% of the market that can afford a smart phone has one already. There’s not much left to wow the consumer with in mobile right now. The only big leap I see right now is power consumption. Produce a cool phone that doesn’t die after 4 hours on constant use and you might have that wow factor.
an
January 24, 2013 @
12:14 PM
livinincali wrote:AN [quote=livinincali][quote=AN]QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.[/quote]
I personally think the growth in mobile hardware is pretty much done at this point. They’ll still sell mobile devices but the growth rate in mobile hardware is going to decline going forward. Over 50% of the market that can afford a smart phone has one already. There’s not much left to wow the consumer with in mobile right now. The only big leap I see right now is power consumption. Produce a cool phone that doesn’t die after 4 hours on constant use and you might have that wow factor.[/quote]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.
livinincali
January 24, 2013 @
12:34 PM
AN wrote:
China, India, [quote=AN]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.[/quote]
How many unique mobile devices do you really need. The mobile platform at it’s core is a data consuming device. The human brain can only absorb so much content at any given time. HD streaming video on a single device is probably the maximum a human brain can absorb at any given time. If it were me I’d create one smart device whether it’s a phone or a tablet or just some smart device that has the brains and wireless components and then just create a bunch of various dumb form factors that can be used to provide input and output from that smart device.
I honestly don’t understand why you need computer and high end rf processing power in so many different mobile devices. Put it one and make various form factors that interface with it. We like the terminal server nature of the cloud but somehow need all of our hardware needs to be smart. How much would it cost to build a mobile form factor dumb touch screen.
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
2:02 PM
livinincali wrote:AN [quote=livinincali][quote=AN]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.[/quote]
How many unique mobile devices do you really need. The mobile platform at it’s core is a data consuming device. The human brain can only absorb so much content at any given time. HD streaming video on a single device is probably the maximum a human brain can absorb at any given time. If it were me I’d create one smart device whether it’s a phone or a tablet or just some smart device that has the brains and wireless components and then just create a bunch of various dumb form factors that can be used to provide input and output from that smart device.
I honestly don’t understand why you need computer and high end rf processing power in so many different mobile devices. Put it one and make various form factors that interface with it. We like the terminal server nature of the cloud but somehow need all of our hardware needs to be smart. How much would it cost to build a mobile form factor dumb touch screen.[/quote]
Culturally phones are status symbols overseas.
So as long as the latest and greatest is out, someone will buy it.
Also, overseas, folks use the cell phone more readily to do more things than we do… Mobile payments will be huge. We’re just scratching the surface right now…
Mobile payments will evolve and demand work related to security.
And the entire egosystem will be built around that.
just one of many examples.
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
2:02 PM
Microsoft down AH. Microsoft down AH.
an
January 24, 2013 @
2:09 PM
flu wrote:Microsoft down [quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”
Coronita
January 24, 2013 @
2:11 PM
AN wrote:flu wrote:Microsoft [quote=AN][quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”[/quote]
expectations just too high. I’m going to the list of other companies in which I’d be thinking will correct after earnings. I have a google calendar that I put together of all the important earnings announcement so I can make a decision few days or few hours before earnings announcement….
I’ll share if you’re interested.
an
January 24, 2013 @
2:28 PM
flu wrote:AN wrote:flu [quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”[/quote]
expectations just too high. I’m going to the list of other companies in which I’d be thinking will correct after earnings. I have a google calendar that I put together of all the important earnings announcement so I can make a decision few days or few hours before earnings announcement….
I’ll share if you’re interested.[/quote]
Sure, share it. It’s amazing that expectation is actually high with MSFT. But I guess it’s not nearly as high as AAPL, since it’s only down 1.x%. My last post was a jab at those who say, oh look, AAPL has record earning and record profit, so buy buy buy. This is a prime example of even when you have record earning and profit, that doesn’t always mean your stock will see record prices. MSFT have have many record earning and profit over the last 10 years, yet, they’ve gone no where.
SK in CV
January 24, 2013 @
3:15 PM
AN wrote:Sure, share it. [quote=AN]Sure, share it. It’s amazing that expectation is actually high with MSFT. But I guess it’s not nearly as high as AAPL, since it’s only down 1.x%. My last post was a jab at those who say, oh look, AAPL has record earning and record profit, so buy buy buy. This is a prime example of even when you have record earning and profit, that doesn’t always mean your stock will see record prices. MSFT have have many record earning and profit over the last 10 years, yet, they’ve gone no where.[/quote]
Who is saying buy? I think what’s happened over the last few months with AAPL is institutional ownership is being cut back. It’s now down to about 67%, it was as high as 76% I think. Just about every stock fund had a significant holding in the company, even some bond funds. It was leading the market by so much, they only way any fund manager could keep pace with expectations was to be highly overweighted in it. It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.
an
January 24, 2013 @
3:21 PM
SK in CV wrote:Who is saying [quote=SK in CV]Who is saying buy?[/quote]You just did without actually saying “buy” in your last sentence. [quote=SK in CV]I think what’s happened over the last few months with AAPL is institutional ownership is being cut back. It’s now down to about 67%, it was as high as 76% I think. Just about every stock fund had a significant holding in the company, even some bond funds. It was leading the market by so much, they only way any fund manager could keep pace with expectations was to be highly overweighted in it. It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.[/quote]Lets revisit this thread in December and see if we’ll see $600 or more.
earlyretirement
January 24, 2013 @
3:27 PM
SK in CV wrote:
It’s still [quote=SK in CV]
It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.[/quote]
That’s what I’m thinking as well SK. I also agree that a stock buy back will make sense and a good use of their massive cash stockpile.
I’m not one of the Apple Fan Bois that are in love with it at all cost. I do think the growth rates like they were experiencing in previous years is over but man they are still making lots of cash. And although I think a big part of the company died when Jobs did, I wouldn’t count out their creativity and new product pipeline.
Anyone that’s read the Jobs biography by Isaacson knows that Jobs was relentless and a perfectionist. And I’m not sure there are many people like that out there. However, it seems like Jobs took credit for many things that Apple did even if it wasn’t exactly his idea.
I’m not pounding the table calling Apple a buy and recommending people go out and buy it but I did buy a few hundred shares today in my kids college fund account. I’d say there are far worse investments out there.
AN, man NOK is a volatile stock. Personally, I don’t really like their products but one of my friends that works with them told me their patent portfolio alone is worth a fortune. Their cash burn rate concerns me but the risk/reward ratio seems like it would be worth it.
Are you in it for the swings or a long term believer in Nokia? With today’s down draft I almost picked up a boatload today. For a relatively short-term trade. (I consider short-term a year or less).
an
January 24, 2013 @
3:34 PM
earlyretirement wrote:Are you [quote=earlyretirement]Are you in it for the swings or a long term believer in Nokia? With today’s down draft I almost picked up a boatload today. For a relatively short-term trade. (I consider short-term a year or less).[/quote]
I’m in it for a long term. Like you said, their patent portfolio is massive. But I think they have a lot of potential on the upside when/if Windows Phone takes off. I don’t think MSFT will let them die either. They actually turn a profit this last quarter. So their cash burn rate should hopefully be the thing of the past. We’ll have to wait and see.
earlyretirement
January 24, 2013 @
3:37 PM
AN wrote:
I’m in it for a [quote=AN]
I’m in it for a long term. Like you said, their patent portfolio is massive. But I think they have a lot of potential on the upside when/if Windows Phone takes off. I don’t think MSFT will let them die either. They actually turn a profit this last quarter. So their cash burn rate should hopefully be the thing of the past. We’ll have to wait and see.[/quote]
What your saying is EXACTLY what my friend said. Especially about the MSFT part. I did see they turned a profit which was great. I think I’ll jump back in tomorrow. Thanks for the great posts.
That’s what I’m thinking as well SK. I also agree that a stock buy back will make sense and a good use of their massive cash stockpile.
I’m not one of the Apple Fan Bois that are in love with it at all cost. I do think the growth rates like they were experiencing in previous years is over but man they are still making lots of cash. And although I think a big part of the company died when Jobs did, I wouldn’t count out their creativity and new product pipeline.
Anyone that’s read the Jobs biography by Isaacson knows that Jobs was relentless and a perfectionist. And I’m not sure there are many people like that out there. However, it seems like Jobs took credit for many things that Apple did even if it wasn’t exactly his idea.
I’m not pounding the table calling Apple a buy and recommending people go out and buy it but I did buy a few hundred shares today in my kids college fund account. I’d say there are far worse investments out there.
[/quote]
I’m not all that excited about buying >$400 stocks. I haven’t owned it since the early 90’s (and never owned or used any of their products), though I have picked up some good money over the last couple years with bullish put spreads. But I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have an order in for ATM jan ’14 calls at open tomorrow. We’ll revisit a year from now.
patb
January 24, 2013 @
3:51 PM
i love Apple, they have great i love Apple, they have great products, but, like Sony, i doubt they can survive the loss of the visionary leader.
Apple has basically had one product that they’ve expanded, extended and taken all over. the iPod begat iTunes, begat the iPhone, begat the iPad.
Okay,
now what?
can they make a giant iPad as an iTV with a Kinect like interface?
Maybe? Will it sell?
Can they make a freewheeling style of product, that serves as an excercise center, like the Wii? maybe?
Can they make a car? Maybe?
Can they make a car dashboard insert, that serves as the entire display and controls?
Maybe.
Can they make a new type of toy like the frisbee?
Could they go broadwise? Buy up a big telecom company, and get wireassets, or wireless assets?
Could they go buy Iridium and make ubiquitous 4G, part of the apple experience?
Could they go start making appliances? The Apple Stove or the Apple Refrigerator? Sure.
How about a Apple Washing machine?
but will any of these have the margins and buzzz and demand pull of the iPod?
pat
The-Shoveler
January 24, 2013 @
4:11 PM
“Could they go buy Iridium “Could they go buy Iridium and make ubiquitous 4G, part of the apple experience?”
$8.2B in one quarter. That’s $8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.
all
January 24, 2013 @
9:05 PM
AN wrote:$8.2B in one [quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?
an
January 24, 2013 @
10:45 PM
craptcha wrote:AN wrote:$8.2B [quote=craptcha][quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?[/quote]
Rate of change? AAPL is slightly down from a year ago. Samsung on the other hand is up around 100% from a year ago. Does that mean anything to you? Or how about this: http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/25/global-mobile-phone-shipments-2012/ BTW, AAPL have to compete against Samsung and Google and Microsoft and Qualcomm combined, since Samsung does not have to invest in the OS or the eco system. While Google and Microsoft doesn’t have to invest in hardware, chips, etc. Qualcomm doesn’t have to invest in … well, you get the idea.
all
January 25, 2013 @
8:14 AM
Everything will be alright. Everything will be alright.
Coronita
January 25, 2013 @
8:45 AM
AN wrote:craptcha wrote:AN [quote=AN][quote=craptcha][quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?[/quote]
Rate of change? AAPL is slightly down from a year ago. Samsung on the other hand is up around 100% from a year ago. Does that mean anything to you? Or how about this: http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/25/global-mobile-phone-shipments-2012/ BTW, AAPL have to compete against Samsung and Google and Microsoft and Qualcomm combined, since Samsung does not have to invest in the OS or the eco system. While Google and Microsoft doesn’t have to invest in hardware, chips, etc. Qualcomm doesn’t have to invest in … well, you get the idea.[/quote]
Apple’s comptetion is multifold just in android alone. Because it’s a like a 8 headed monster.
Google owns the software platform, but it partners with many OEM’s to delivery the end product. We all know there is some amount of fragmentation, but it’s also true that with the more recent a android O/S have been improving unifying the experience. Just look at what’s the product portfolio is.
Galaxy Nexus(Samsung), Nexus 7 (Asus), Nexus 4(LG), Nexus 10(Samsung), and upcoming Nexus 5 and Nexus 7.5.. And that’s not counting Samsung’s other Galaxy products not specifically built for Google, not counting LG’s products not specifically built for Google, Acer, HTC, and all the other smaller players…
And the ones pushing the envelope right now are these players.
an
January 25, 2013 @
9:35 AM
flu wrote:Apple’s comptetion [quote=flu]Apple’s comptetion is multifold just in android alone. Because it’s a like a 8 headed monster.
Google owns the software platform, but it partners with many OEM’s to delivery the end product. We all know there is some amount of fragmentation, but it’s also true that with the more recent a android O/S have been improving unifying the experience. Just look at what’s the product portfolio is.
Galaxy Nexus(Samsung), Nexus 7 (Asus), Nexus 4(LG), Nexus 10(Samsung), and upcoming Nexus 5 and Nexus 7.5.. And that’s not counting Samsung’s other Galaxy products not specifically built for Google, not counting LG’s products not specifically built for Google, Acer, HTC, and all the other smaller players…
And the ones pushing the envelope right now are these players.[/quote]
Yep, I totally agree. I have a feeling we might see a repeat of Mac vs Windows again. But this time, it’s iOS vs Android vs Windows.
There’s no way Apple can keep up w/ QCOM/Samsung/Nvidia on the chip side, Samsung/Nokia/LG/Asus/etc on the devices/packaging side and Google/Microsoft on the OS/platform/ecosystem side and not bust their budget through R&D. All of these companies have their own budget for R&D and they all are massive. Add them together and Apple will have a tough time keeping up in the long run. We’ll see how it play out.
WRT the stock price, down another 2% this morning. Nearing $440 already. I’m going to get a few $300 Jan ’14 put just to put my money where my mouth is like SK.
earlyretirement
January 25, 2013 @
10:25 AM
Yeah, ugly action on AAPL the Yeah, ugly action on AAPL the past two days. We’ll see how this thing plays out by the end of 2013. I picked up some NOK this morning.
SmellsFeeshy
January 25, 2013 @
10:30 AM
NOK does look pretty cheap at NOK does look pretty cheap at the moment, although I’d be concerned that even though earnings came in better than expected yesterday the stock is still down today. Guess maybe that’s because they suspended their dividend?
Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.
an
January 25, 2013 @
10:46 AM
SmellsFeeshy wrote:Jan 14 $5 [quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.
SmellsFeeshy
January 25, 2013 @
10:54 AM
AN wrote:SmellsFeeshy [quote=AN][quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.[/quote]
How much are you paying for fees? Unless you are trading very small amounts frequently I don’t see how the fees could be that significant.
an
January 25, 2013 @
11:16 AM
SmellsFeeshy wrote:AN [quote=SmellsFeeshy][quote=AN][quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.[/quote]
How much are you paying for fees? Unless you are trading very small amounts frequently I don’t see how the fees could be that significant.[/quote]
Here’s an example: with NOK $4 Jan ’14 call, your cost is $100/contract. So, if you want to spend $8k, you need 80 contracts. My fee would be $10 + $1.50 * 80 = $130 in fee. So $260 to buy then sell. If the stock went up 20% at today’s price, the price is only $5.05. So your profit is ~$7700. Now, if you buy 1 GOOG $755 Jan ’14 call, my cost would be $11.50. If GOOG goes up 10%, I’m already up ~$7500. If GOOG goes up 20% like NOK, I’d be up ~$15k. You might argue that NOK is more likely to go up 20% than GOOG going up 20%, sure. But what about NOK going up 20% vs GOOG going up 10%? What about NOK and GOOG stays flat? So, I see a lot more risk with NOK’s option due to fee. Now, if you buy the actual stock, then I’m all for it, since the cost would be the same.
Coronita
January 25, 2013 @
6:43 AM
AN, I’ve re-entered the AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…
moneymaker
January 25, 2013 @
8:17 AM
With ATT and Verizon buying With ATT and Verizon buying up spectrum,might be a good time to short Sprint. I’ve never shorted a stock, but if I were to I would definitely be shorting this one.
enron_by_the_sea
January 25, 2013 @
10:34 AM
moneymaker wrote:With ATT and [quote=moneymaker]With ATT and Verizon buying up spectrum,might be a good time to short Sprint. I’ve never shorted a stock, but if I were to I would definitely be shorting this one.[/quote]
You know that Softbank is buying out sprint right? They are paying something like $7/share for a part of Sprint shares in a tender offer.
desmond
January 25, 2013 @
9:29 AM
flu wrote:AN, I’ve re-entered [quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………
Coronita
January 25, 2013 @
11:18 AM
desmond wrote:flu wrote:AN, [quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..
desmond
January 25, 2013 @
2:09 PM
flu wrote:desmond wrote:flu [quote=flu][quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..[/quote]
Just yankin you, …..it hit a long time high today……………..go BMY…
Coronita
January 25, 2013 @
2:37 PM
desmond wrote:flu [quote=desmond][quote=flu][quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..[/quote]
Just yankin you, …..it hit a long time high today……………..go BMY…[/quote]
Trust me you want me to buy this… Because the moment I sell, it will triple… I’ll let you know beforehand…. Then you can send me my commission check.
November 1, 2012 @ 7:30 AM
I’m too chicken for this in
I’m too chicken for this in real life but I voted for yes, short the stock…
The thing that made me decide was the recent exec being fired kinda divulged there’s something internal going on in terms of direction…That’s not a good sign….
November 1, 2012 @ 7:51 AM
I saw an article where some
I saw an article where some company (not available in the U.S. yet) is selling a ipad type device running on linux OS or android OS (forgot which), selling it for $40 dollars (yes that’s right I did not leave a zero off), currently they have to connect it to cell phone, but they have one for $100 that uses wi-fi.
Google coming out with I think 200 dollar Lap-Top running Chrome type OS, this type of thing will only become cheaper.
The I-Clones are coming the I-Clones are coming,
November 1, 2012 @ 8:29 AM
Amazon is selling at 300
Amazon is selling at 300 times earnings.
Facebook is selling at almost 200 times earnings.
Google is selling at almost 21 times earnings.
Microsoft is selling at almost 16 times earning.
Apple is selling at under 14 times earnings.
and just for fun:
Catapillar is selling at 9 times earnings.
Ford is selling at 2.5 times earnings.
Which one is under-priced?
November 1, 2012 @ 8:48 AM
The Problem with Tech (and
The Problem with Tech (and working in Tech),
Is you can become so yesterday so quickly.
Apple is not IBM where they have huge service revenue
November 1, 2012 @ 10:25 AM
I think Apple’s long march to
I think Apple’s long march to dominance has finally been halted so Apple stock will probably not double from here. In order for Apple to double from here they need to invent another new category of product. They could do it but what are the chances? Or another 1999-style stock bubble can double Apple but what are the chances of that?
However that does not mean that it is a short at present levels either. Low PE, cash on hand, dividends and still-decent revenue growth rate will put a floor under its stock price …
November 1, 2012 @ 10:29 AM
Tech isn’t about tech. It’s
Tech isn’t about tech. It’s about marketing and fashion. It’s about stroking egos.
IMHO, Apple has found just the right level of dumbed-down. Their users feel like they’re tech-savvy movers and shakers, while the underlying tech prevents them from doing anything that takes them off the carefully maintained corporate revenue path.
Most people can’t root their phones and don’t want to.
November 1, 2012 @ 7:11 PM
Apple is
Apple is BMW/Mercedes.
Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.
1) Corporate IT world
2) Television
The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.
But if they’re looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.
November 1, 2012 @ 7:17 PM
Actually, Apple’s desktop
Actually, Apple’s desktop OS’s are hugely flexible and relatively hacker-friendly. It’s just iOS that’s deliberately crippled, due to the legacy of a senile, ill old man that should have resigned a year earlier.
The sad thing is that a system can be BOTH user-friendly AND open, and Apple doesn’t seem to acknowledge that with iOS.
November 1, 2012 @ 10:10 PM
CONCHO wrote:Apple is
[quote=CONCHO]Apple is BMW/Mercedes.
Everything else is Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
The difference is quality is very dramatic, at every level. That said, there is plenty of market for both BMW/Mercedes and Ford/Chevy/Dodge.
Apple has a couple of areas they could enter that would really change everything and could make them grow to unimaginable proportions if they succeeded.
1) Corporate IT world
2) Television
The likelihood of these are low and I think the gov would bring antitrust lawsuits if they were making too many inroads there.
But if they’re looking for growth there is huge potential in those. Very stale old markets, nothing new happening in ages, ripe for a revolution.[/quote]
The likelihood of Apple’s entrance into the corporate IT world is pretty strong. It’s one of the issues addressed during their earnings phone call last week that didn’t get much press, but investors loved it for about 45 seconds. The pentagon just ended their exclusive with RIM. My only hesitancy to call Apple’s entry into the enterprise market as having a huge potential is that RIM, which had that market locked up for so long, didn’t generate numbers big enough to move the needle much for Apple. But it could be significant, at least sufficient to add to growth for another couple years.
November 1, 2012 @ 10:15 PM
Phones? Tablets? What about
Phones? Tablets? What about selling the corporate desktop as well?
I was always surprised that US government organizations had such a strong connection to RIM. After all, all ‘berry traffic is passed through servers controlled by a foreign company.
November 1, 2012 @ 11:44 PM
“Yes: but markets are
“Yes: but markets are irrationale, so you’re asking for it if you short.”
I vote for this one.
And I think we’ve got something with that new word you used.
Rationale: a reasoned exposition, esp one defining the fundamental reasons for a course of action, belief, etc (dictionary.com)
Irrationale: What a woman uses instead of a reasoned exposition. (zk)
I kid because I love.
November 2, 2012 @ 7:24 AM
well, im not even qualified
well, im not even qualified to vote, but im gonna go buy a new ipad today, if bestbuy has one. I have a few hundred dollars in bestbuy credits from a dispute and I want to spend them before the company goes bankrupt, voids the credits or, most likely, I misplace them. take this info into account before shorting the stock.
November 2, 2012 @ 7:51 AM
I can just hear the laughter
I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”
November 2, 2012 @ 10:38 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:I can just
[quote=The-Shoveler]I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”[/quote]
This won’t phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don’t like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc… use them.
Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted “aspirational” consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.
I’m not saying this is an accurate perception, it’s just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.
November 2, 2012 @ 12:03 PM
CONCHO wrote:The-Shoveler
[quote=CONCHO][quote=The-Shoveler]I can just hear the laughter out of the samsung Boardroom,
“Apple is having trouble in Mexico right before the holiday season. The company has lost rights to the name iPhone in the country, as it was already owned by a Mexican telecom company called iFone (Google translation of Spanish original). iFone registered its trademark in 2003, four years before Apple iPhone was launched. In 2009, Apple filed a complaint with the Mexican Industrial Property Institute demanding that iFone stop using is name because it could confuse users. That claim was since denied, and iFone is looking to turn the tables.”[/quote]
This won’t phase Apple for a moment. They will simply give it a new cool Mexican name and people will still flock to stores to buy them in droves. They don’t like it because of its name, they like it because all the coolest people they see on TV, in magazines, in movies, etc… use them.
Every TV show that is cool, all over the world, shows the coolest people using Apple products. Apple is a premium brand like BMW/Mercedes which appeals to the coveted “aspirational” consumer tranche. PC/Samsung/Microsoft/Dell are all viewed as 2nd rate and worse, products for dorks who like tinkering or people who are thrifty. Not cool.
I’m not saying this is an accurate perception, it’s just the way people think at the moment. It could change at any time.[/quote]
These folks just epitomize cool…
Riots With iPads: When SF Won The World Series
http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/29/riots-with-ipads/
November 2, 2012 @ 11:28 AM
I trade aapl options. Stock
I trade aapl options. Stock is undervalued now and going through a correction before a massive rally.
This correction by the way is smaller (% wise) than the one that occurred in the middle of the year. Market makers are squeezing every last drop out off options (with Jan expiry) and stock holders.
$650 in 3-4 weeks, around $700 around Jan. $1000 by 2014.
Due your own diligence before buying.
November 2, 2012 @ 11:42 AM
That’s my problem I guess,
That’s my problem I guess,
I’m just not cool enough !!
November 2, 2012 @ 12:36 PM
Is Apples heyday over?
Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.
November 2, 2012 @ 1:11 PM
Apple has about 2-5 years of
Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.
November 2, 2012 @ 1:18 PM
Except that they sell
Except that they sell crippleware in the form of iOS. Google chooses to cripple their OS much less. Sooner than later, people are getting wise to that fact, plus you can’t argue with the fact that Android devices offer much more bang for a buck.
It’s a shame that they didn’t become less anally controlling after Jobsie left the building.
December 15, 2012 @ 10:19 PM
Tickles wrote:Apple has about
[quote=Tickles]Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.[/quote]
iPhone/iPad/IOS is now 6 years old.
Macbook/iMac/MacPro are mature products.
iTunes now has competitors with Amazon/Google…
Apple needs something new and amazing.
Look we have an iPad 1, but, we didn’t rush out to buy an iPad 2,3 or mini.
Heck even if they make the improvements we want (8×11) format, thinner, longer battery life.
There is no reason to replace the iPad we have.
great company great products, but i have an Android phone, why do i want the iPhone?
November 2, 2012 @ 1:17 PM
poorgradstudent wrote:Is
[quote=poorgradstudent]Is Apples heyday over? Yes.
Will the stock decline appreciably in the next year? I doubt it.
AAPL is up something like 7000% in the past 10 years. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they will not go up another 70-fold in the next 10 years. Crazy, I know! But could AAPL become another KO? Not exactly an innovator, but keeps putting out decent products that people keep buying? Keeps making money, although possibly not at the clip it is today? Totally possible.[/quote]
Apple has about 2-5 years of heydaying.
They have just completely revamped their product line – phones, pads, comps., that sets them up for the next few years.
They have guided $52B for next quarter alone. What company does that today? They should crush that number.
In my opinion, AAPL should print $1000 by / around 2014. Do yourself a favor, look into it and become a richgradstudent.
November 7, 2012 @ 10:04 AM
It’s relatively obvious that
It’s relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it’s hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don’t equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let’s take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.
My guess is that AAPL will have it’s all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn’t already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don’t have and want. Right now I haven’t seen it and I don’t expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won’t get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.
November 7, 2012 @ 10:20 AM
livinincali wrote:It’s
[quote=livinincali]It’s relatively obvious that AAPL growth days are numbered. If you just assume that maybe 2 billion people in the whole world could even afford a smart phone and assume that 60% of them already have one it’s hard to see where the growth is going to come from. Replacements don’t equal growth that just helps maintain the numbers you current have. Let’s take the best case scenario AAPL maintains 35-40% of the smart phone market and the total smart phone market approaches my 2 billion number. That gives AAPL 800 million total phones. Then lets assume AAPL is super innovative and 80% of those 800 million users upgrade every 2 years. So you now have 640 million phones every 2 years or 320 million per year. AAPL has been selling 150-200 million iPhone for the last couple of years, so your looking at a maximum of 50-70% growth from current levels in the extreme optimistic scenario. Most likely it will be something less.
My guess is that AAPL will have it’s all time record quarter in Q4 this year if it didn’t already in Q4 2011. It will go down hill from there unless they come up with a product that those 2 billion people don’t have and want. Right now I haven’t seen it and I don’t expect to. Major technology revolutions such as the internet or mobile only happen about once every 10-15 years and we just had one. Mid 2020 will come up with something must have, but that won’t get AAPL to the first 1 trillion dollar company.[/quote]
iphones make up less than 50% of Apple’s revenues. Next comes ipads, followed by both desktop and laptop computers. The biggest reason that they’ve been able to sustain their growth is because they’ve come out with new products. Can they do it forever? It would seem unlikely, and it’s pretty likely that they have hit a place where continued growth in their existing product lines is pretty limited.
But none of that makes them a bad future play. They’ve proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won’t grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.
November 8, 2012 @ 8:06 AM
SK in CV wrote:
But none of
[quote=SK in CV]
But none of that makes them a bad future play. They’ve proved in the past that they can be innovative and create new product lines where there is no competition. Worst possible scenario over the next few years is that they become microsoft, where good money goes to sleep. The difference between them and Microsoft when Microsoft revenue growth stopped is that the stock is currently priced as if it won’t grow. And they can afford to pay a shit load of dividends to keep the stock price up.[/quote]
It depends on what you’re looking for. In general when a mega brand ends it’s growth phase it tends to have it’s stock price chopped in half from the peak and it usually takes a few years for the value investors to replace the growth investors. Look at KO or MSFT. They’ll be a right place to buy AAPL for value investing. Probably around $400/sh but they may not get that low for awhile because there’s still a lot of hope in the company.
November 2, 2012 @ 1:00 PM
Well, it’s below 200 day
Well, it’s below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn…
November 2, 2012 @ 1:16 PM
deleted
deleted
November 2, 2012 @ 1:17 PM
flu wrote:Well, it’s below
[quote=flu]Well, it’s below 200 day moving average after I posted. Darn…[/quote]
Best thing that could have happened. AAPL has reached capitulation on technical and valuation fronts.
November 2, 2012 @ 1:20 PM
I think aapl’s valuation is
I think aapl’s valuation is largely based on the innovations of a single person who is not with the company anymore. Look at what happened to Apple the first time Jobs left.
According to Trefis http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AAPL.trefis&from=search# (don’t know how accurate that is though) a full 70% of Apple’s valuation comes from products developed in the last 5 years. Products developed before that time account for 12% of valuation. Lesson: unless Apple keeps producing new groundbreaking products, its valuation isn’t headed in a good direction.
My prediction:
I think they will keep churning out iPads, iPhones, iPods, sales on iTunes, and high margin boutique laptops and computers for several years at least as competitors catch up. My guess is that they will eventually have to release their full computer OS tablet to stay competitive when/if somebody else’s becomes viable, but that will be their last big innovation and even this will likely eat into their highly profitable laptop and desktop market.
I hope I’m wrong.
November 2, 2012 @ 2:11 PM
iOS is only crippled for
iOS is only crippled for techno-nerds who want to play with different browsers or try compiling their OS and watching it crash to show their friends how smart and tech-savvy they are. People like this make up about %0.0000001 of the market, although the tech press will have you believe otherwise because they depend on ad revenue from Apple’s competitors to stay alive.
Apple tightly controls the software on their devices because software quality is a huge part of overall product quality and consumer perception. Microsoft was viewed as having poor quality for many years because they didn’t control a lot of the device driver software that PCs used. This wasn’t Microsoft’s fault and was no reflection on their quality, which has always been very high. But facts like that don’t matter in the marketplace. Customers saw PCs crash (almost always due to non-MS device driver bugs), saw the MS Windows label, and made the mental association that “MS=bugs”. The fact that it’s incorrect doesn’t matter, the damage is done and will take years to undo.
Apple “cripples” their products primarily to prevent them from crashing and to control the user experience. This prevents Apple from being associated with poor product quality. High quality is the ONLY thing that will keep them alive, since their prices are high relative to the competition. No one would buy a Mercedes if they didn’t have good quality. Does Mercedes cripple their cars because they don’t make it easy to swap transmissions?
November 7, 2012 @ 9:15 AM
Damnit!
http://finance.yahoo.
Damnit!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-shares-drop-20-percent-170758992.html
562.47
November 8, 2012 @ 7:06 AM
delete.
delete.
December 5, 2012 @ 2:21 PM
bump…
told
bump…
told ya!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1
December 5, 2012 @ 5:27 PM
Still up nearly 40% for the
Still up nearly 40% for the year. Not bad for a company whose heyday is over.
December 7, 2012 @ 11:07 AM
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee……
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1
December 14, 2012 @ 7:21 AM
Going
Going down….
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl&ql=1
December 14, 2012 @ 7:45 AM
Now selling cheaper than
Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.
December 18, 2012 @ 10:15 AM
SK in CV wrote:Now selling
[quote=SK in CV]Now selling cheaper than msft. Maybe a lot of eoy selling? I thought it was cheap a few days ago. Cheaper now. Selling a weekly put spread if it ever fills, betting it will bounce back at least $10 by a week from now.[/quote]
Cha ching here too. Bot back the put for a nickel. +$3,400. 4 days. I think 5 clicks.
December 14, 2012 @ 9:25 AM
I think qualcomm is a better
I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70
December 14, 2012 @ 10:14 AM
flu wrote:I think qualcomm is
[quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.
December 14, 2012 @ 10:35 AM
AN wrote:flu wrote:I think
[quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.
December 14, 2012 @ 10:39 AM
I’d rather hear from
I’d rather hear from Tickles……….
December 17, 2012 @ 6:58 AM
flu wrote:AN wrote:flu
[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.[/quote]
Cha ching
December 18, 2012 @ 9:17 AM
flu wrote:flu wrote:AN
[quote=flu][quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]I think qualcomm is a better buy at this point….
*edit*…
I bought in this morning at 59.70[/quote]
Wow, good job. It’s now 60.78. AAPL on the other hand is still sliding. 10 points away from slipping below $500.[/quote]
I think qc probably fell in sympathy to appl. BUT i don’t think what most retail “investors” realize is qc isn’t just dependent on apple. They’re pretty much in play @ Samsung, LG, etc etc etc…..
So we’ll see.[/quote]
Cha ching[/quote]
I’m out @$63.11….
Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger… Not bad for 2 day’s of clicking….
December 18, 2012 @ 9:29 AM
flu wrote:I’m out
[quote=flu]I’m out @$63.11….
Enough to pay for the miata + parts + part of the supercharger… Not bad for 2 day’s of clicking….[/quote]
Not bad, but it’s now at $63.30. That would have been enough for a new set of tires and a track day paid admission :-D.
December 14, 2012 @ 10:48 AM
I know a few people that
I know a few people that bought into apple’s hype at around $700/share just a few months ago, after listening to “analysts” saying it was going to $1000/share…
Ouch.
I’m wondering what’s really gonna happen if we have a broader market correction….Seems like even when the broader market is holding ok these days, appl can’t.
Lol…
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57558757-37/samsung-knocks-apple-maps-in-sydney-marketing-stunt/
December 14, 2012 @ 5:46 PM
too many hedge funds holding
too many hedge funds holding AAPL if they can’t meet their 2% annual fee, they will get a lot of redemptions
January 23, 2013 @ 1:44 PM
Apple misses….
I think
Apple misses….
I think their golden days are over.
January 23, 2013 @ 1:49 PM
delete.
delete.
January 23, 2013 @ 2:30 PM
Apple down over 9% now
Apple down over 9% now AH….
I think the egosystem around it’s going down also. Qualcomm AH is down also…
January 23, 2013 @ 2:38 PM
I think the entire NASDAQ is
I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.
January 23, 2013 @ 2:58 PM
AN wrote:I think the entire
[quote=AN]I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.[/quote]
…Netflix is up…Bigtime…
Tomorrow seems like it’s gonna be very interesting.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:33 PM
AN wrote:I think the entire
[quote=AN]I think the entire NASDAQ is down, including GOOG, NOK, MSFT.[/quote]
Aapl is like 20% of Nasdaq, with their big market cap, they drag around QQQ
something fierce.
Netflix isn’t big enough to move the needle yet
January 23, 2013 @ 3:31 PM
apple down $55 ah @
apple down $55 ah @ 10%..
Man, tomorrow is gonna be a bloodbath.
Wonder what the hedgefunds are gonna do…
January 23, 2013 @ 3:36 PM
Too bad I didn’t do what I
Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.
January 23, 2013 @ 3:52 PM
AN wrote:Too bad I didn’t do
[quote=AN]Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.[/quote]
next best thing would be to wait for a correction and buy stuff on the way up.
January 23, 2013 @ 3:57 PM
AN wrote:Too bad I didn’t do
[quote=AN]Too bad I didn’t do what I usually do and get both put and call on AAPL. Would have treated me well.[/quote]
I sold the February 16 $500 Covered Calls yesterday and darn glad I did. I got $21 so that will help take the sting out. It will be interesting where it ends up by end of options expiration next month.
January 23, 2013 @ 4:03 PM
It’s kinda funny how this is
It’s kinda funny how this is happening just when there articles about how people are starting to move money back into the markets…..
January 23, 2013 @ 5:19 PM
flu wrote:It’s kinda funny
[quote=flu]It’s kinda funny how this is happening just when there articles about how people are starting to move money back into the markets…..[/quote]
Makes no sense to pull the rug out until the majority sucker money is in. Just kidding sort of.
But somehow I think they would not let it crash until Europe is stable, hmmm maybe Europe is stable enough.
Yep no election to worry about, so maybe.
Also Pension funds were starting to recover, if the market were to crash… well.
January 23, 2013 @ 5:21 PM
Quick, start the printer.
Quick, start the printer.
January 24, 2013 @ 9:12 AM
The-Shoveler wrote:Quick,
[quote=The-Shoveler]Quick, start the printer.[/quote]
I was recently at the Bureau of Printing and Engraving and they said they can print $1 Billion dollars cash a day. Wow, I sure hope they aren’t doing that yet however.Supposedly 90% of what they print is replacing cash currently in circulation, not sure I believe that one.
January 24, 2013 @ 9:29 AM
Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m
Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m staying out of AAPL right now too. Although, unlike flu, I’ve been fully invested in the market that last month, so I was a little nervous when everything was down in AH yesterday and futures for all 3 indexes were in the red. But looks like DOW & S&P are rewarding me today after all. I’m going to buy some more NOK today though, maybe a little more AGNC too.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:08 PM
AN wrote:Good luck ER. Like
[quote=AN]Good luck ER. Like flu, I’m staying out of AAPL right now too. Although, unlike flu, I’ve been fully invested in the market that last month, so I was a little nervous when everything was down in AH yesterday and futures for all 3 indexes were in the red. But looks like DOW & S&P are rewarding me today after all. I’m going to buy some more NOK today though, maybe a little more AGNC too.[/quote]
Thanks AN. It was ugly today but I typically invest for the long haul and I don’t use margin at all. Fortunately I dumped most of my Apple a while back at much higher prices. I typically sell call options on it each month so that has really brought down the cost basis tremendously.
Man, NOK has been on a wild ride. I got called out of most of my NOK last month. The call option premiums were really amazing for a while. But with that spike up, most of my shares got called away. Same with SLV this past options expiration.
These days I don’t “swing for the fences” anymore like when I was younger. I typically just buy some stocks I think are beaten down and then sell the covered call options on them and if they get called away so be it. The returns have been solid.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:14 PM
earlyretirement wrote:Thanks
[quote=earlyretirement]Thanks AN. It was ugly today but I typically invest for the long haul and I don’t use margin at all. Fortunately I dumped most of my Apple a while back at much higher prices. I typically sell call options on it each month so that has really brought down the cost basis tremendously.
Man, NOK has been on a wild ride. I got called out of most of my NOK last month. The call option premiums were really amazing for a while. But with that spike up, most of my shares got called away. Same with SLV this past options expiration.
These days I don’t “swing for the fences” anymore like when I was younger. I typically just buy some stocks I think are beaten down and then sell the covered call options on them and if they get called away so be it. The returns have been solid.[/quote]
You’re right, NOK have been on a wild ride. Luckily, I’ve been on the right side of that trade. I consider NOK as being beaten down and are primed to a come back if they can execute. AAPL on the hand, I don’t think have been beaten down enough yet. Maybe when it his mid $200. But I just don’t believe in the longevity of AAPL. I see AAPL vs GOOG today is like AAPL vs MSFT in the 80s. AAPL have a nice head start but we know how that story played out.
January 23, 2013 @ 4:06 PM
Armh is off it’s high of
Armh is off it’s high of $40…
Intel is treading water at $21….
Nxpi (well won’t really be affected since they aren’t an apple supplier for obvious reasons)
Anyone else?
January 23, 2013 @ 4:10 PM
NASDAQ future is down 44
NASDAQ future is down 44 points. I wonder if this down turn will have legs or will other companies come out with good earning and stem the tide. We’ll have to wait and see. 2 Quarter in a row for AAPL. This might be the beginning of the end for them.
January 23, 2013 @ 4:27 PM
Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!!
Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!! SELL!! I for one am sick and tired of AAPL posting record-breaking profit, revenue, and sales. That’s just not the kind of company you should invest in……
January 23, 2013 @ 4:37 PM
afx114 wrote:Quick everyone,
[quote=afx114]Quick everyone, SELL!! SELL!! SELL!! I for one am sick and tired of AAPL posting record-breaking profit, revenue, and sales. That’s just not the kind of company you should invest in……[/quote]MSFT have been posting record profit a lot lately too. But that didn’t translate to stock price rising.
January 23, 2013 @ 5:15 PM
AN wrote:NASDAQ future is
[quote=AN]NASDAQ future is down 44 points. I wonder if this down turn will have legs or will other companies come out with good earning and stem the tide. We’ll have to wait and see. 2 Quarter in a row for AAPL. This might be the beginning of the end for them.[/quote]
Beginning of the end of what? Record iphone sales. Record volume. Close to record profit. They now have $137B cash on hand, more cash on hand than HP’s annual revenue. They always kill guidance. Now selling at below 10x earnings. Lower than MSFT at about 14. Lower than NFLX at over 130. Amazon? 3500x.
Crappy company. They obviously have no future.
Altera missed. Check Point hit. MSI beat estimates (before todays open) SNDK is getting hammered after hours. Symantec hit. Western Digital hit revenue, missed earnings, down a bit after hours. Pretty mixed bag in tech results today. Based on earnings, its hard to say the market is overpriced. But the market has issues.
January 23, 2013 @ 9:15 PM
SK in CV wrote:Beginning of
[quote=SK in CV]Beginning of the end of what? [/quote]End of the stock’s stratospheric run. Whether their history will repeat or not, I don’t know. But I think their stock’s performance over the last 10 years won’t be repeated over the next 10 years.
[quote=SK in CV]Record iphone sales. Record volume. Close to record profit. They now have $137B cash on hand, more cash on hand than HP’s annual revenue. They always kill guidance. Now selling at below 10x earnings. Lower than MSFT at about 14. Lower than NFLX at over 130. Amazon? 3500x.
Crappy company. They obviously have no future.
Altera missed. Check Point hit. MSI beat estimates (before todays open) SNDK is getting hammered after hours. Symantec hit. Western Digital hit revenue, missed earnings, down a bit after hours. Pretty mixed bag in tech results today. Based on earnings, its hard to say the market is overpriced. But the market has issues.[/quote]Did I say APPL is a crappy company? Hyperbolic much? However, like flu said, there’s Android and not to mention Windows. Competition up until early last year is VERY different than the competition they’re facing now. I’d like to revisit this thread 2 years from now and see where AAPL is. Right now though, damn, it must of hurt to lose 10% in one afternoon.
January 23, 2013 @ 9:50 PM
AN wrote:I say APPL is a
[quote=AN]I say APPL is a crappy company? Hyperbolic much? However, like flu said, there’s Android and not to mention Windows. Competition up until early last year is VERY different than the competition they’re facing now. I’d like to revisit this thread 2 years from now and see where AAPL is. Right now though, damn, it must of hurt to lose 10% in one afternoon.[/quote]
No, not a crappy company. What you said was the same thing someone said after last quarters earnings, before they had record volume and record profits.
Which one of us is hyperbolic?
January 23, 2013 @ 10:01 PM
Where was their stock after
Where was their stock after last earning and where do you think their stock will be tomorrow. MSFT had record blah blah blah at their peak too. What happen to their stocks over the lazy 10 years all the while breaking new record earnings? I was referring to their stocks, not the actual company as a whole.
January 23, 2013 @ 11:07 PM
Let’s see where Microsoft is.
Let’s see where Microsoft is. The second largest tech company by market cap in the world. Is it a dead company? Apple is more than twice as valuable.
Where do you think Apple will be in market cap a year from now? Something other than the largest? Is that what the end looks like?
January 23, 2013 @ 11:39 PM
SK in CV wrote:Let’s see
[quote=SK in CV]Let’s see where Microsoft is. The second largest tech company by market cap in the world. Is it a dead company? Apple is more than twice as valuable.
Where do you think Apple will be in market cap a year from now? Something other than the largest? Is that what the end looks like?[/quote]
Lets see where MSFT stock was 10 years ago: ~$24. Lets see where MSFT is today: $27.61. That’s 15% increase in 10 years. You can do A LOT better than that buying a 10 years CD 10 years ago. I could care less what their market cap is. I’m an investor, I only care what their stock price will do in the future. It’s not like I’m the CEO and have some ego tied to the company’s market cap. Same goes for AAPL. With AAPL’s war chest, they’re not going anywhere. But that’s irrelevant to me. So, why does market cap matter so much to you?
January 24, 2013 @ 7:25 AM
Call me crazy but I just
Call me crazy but I just loaded up on AAPL this morning. I call things like this “buying opportunities”.
January 24, 2013 @ 7:37 AM
earlyretirement wrote:Call me
[quote=earlyretirement]Call me crazy but I just loaded up on AAPL this morning. I call things like this “buying opportunities”.[/quote]
Good luck ER. I’m staying out of this one….
Me, I’m trying to find an reentry point for Qualcomm and I’m considering adding more to NXPI and ARMH if there’s any sort of correction…
I picked up Marvel MRVL purely based on speculation this morning. (It’s a shit company but hey, let’ see how the patent lawsuit works out…)…
..Edit… My capital one order also executed this morning too at 56.25, as was as dupont at 47.82….
We’ll see.
Market is holding pretty well to my surprise (dismay). lol.
January 24, 2013 @ 7:52 AM
Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll
Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll agree with pundits that Apple isn’t the same company without Jobs. And they have had their share of blunders lately. But the company is still a cash cow. Some of these other companies out there with their insane valuations or tremendous debt make me shake my head.
I still believe they have some amazing things in the pipeline coming in the future.
I’m fairly conservative on stocks and mostly sell covered call options every month if I can.
It sounds like you stay really active with stocks. I had those days in my younger years but now I lost my “pattern day trader” flag. 🙂
January 24, 2013 @ 8:13 AM
earlyretirement wrote:Thanks
[quote=earlyretirement]Thanks flu. Absolutely I’ll agree with pundits that Apple isn’t the same company without Jobs. And they have had their share of blunders lately. But the company is still a cash cow. Some of these other companies out there with their insane valuations or tremendous debt make me shake my head.
I still believe they have some amazing things in the pipeline coming in the future.
I’m fairly conservative on stocks and mostly sell covered call options every month if I can.
It sounds like you stay really active with stocks. I had those days in my younger years but now I lost my “pattern day trader” flag. :)[/quote]
I adopt my trading pattern based on what things are doing… For the past two years, it’s been nothing but a yo-yo…. So I’m one of those yo-yo jokers right now…
But even with bad news like today, I’ve got a feeling things are gonna start marching upwards…Markets don’t seem to care about bad news these days… Maybe it hits individual companies, but the indexes keep rising…Oh well….
January 23, 2013 @ 6:17 PM
I would say the law of very
I would say the law of very large numbers starts to work against you as well eventually.
Somehow iphones/iclones will start to become a flooded commodity at some point (IMO), are we there yet? I don’t know, I do know I have kept my cell phone 4 years now, got a nice rebate last time I signed up for keeping my old phone.
January 23, 2013 @ 7:13 PM
Samsung… Enough said.
The
Samsung… Enough said.
The fact is that Google can out innovate Apple on the smartphone market at this point. They can work with more than one OEM at the same time to develop multiple products at the same time.
Just look at the pipeline right now.
Galaxy Nexus is on the way out, you have a Nexus 4 made by LG (crap by the way), Nexus 7 made by Asus, Nexus 10 from Samsung and pretty soon there will be a Nexus 5 and most likely a Nexus 7.7… If they can get manufacturers to release 4-6 devices per season, that’s some serious damage….Not even counting on Windows entry…
January 24, 2013 @ 8:36 AM
breakout….we’re heading
breakout….we’re heading higher….
My 40-50% cash position just devalued more….Stupid stupid stupid.
January 24, 2013 @ 9:54 AM
Hey I just bought VFITX
Hey I just bought VFITX (intermediate treasuries) from the cash I get from rental income + tenant’s deposit….Lol… 2.xx%….
January 24, 2013 @ 10:56 AM
Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as
Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as of right now. I think they just lost over $50B in market cap in just 1 day.
January 24, 2013 @ 11:03 AM
AN wrote:Wow, AAPL is down
[quote=AN]Wow, AAPL is down $61.xx as of right now. I think they just lost over $50B in market cap in just 1 day.[/quote]
It ain’t gonna be over I’m afraid. If there are hedge funds heavily invested there, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them dump some as well…
It’s gonna drag down probably appl’s suppliers in the short term until they figure out which suppliers have been affected or not…. Longer term I don’t think companies like Qcom have issues because they supply to just about everyone, not just apple.. But it might be a good buying opportunity for companies like such….
nxpi is safe because apple decided not to put NFC into their phones/tablets to begin with….heh heh…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-sneeze-hits-shares-of-chip-suppliers-2013-01-24?siteid=yhoof2
January 24, 2013 @ 11:10 AM
QCOM only supply modem chip
QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.
January 24, 2013 @ 11:22 AM
Since announcing that is is
Since announcing that is is the most profitable company in the entire history of humanity, “Apple’s market value has fallen by the combined market value of two Nokias plus two RIMs. @tomgara”
January 24, 2013 @ 11:47 AM
afx114 wrote:Since announcing
[quote=afx114]Since announcing that is is the most profitable company in the entire history of humanity, “Apple’s market value has fallen by the combined market value of two Nokias plus two RIMs. @tomgara”[/quote]
All that matters is what your entry price was and what your exit price is…. Everything else doesn’t really matter. Anyone who entered at $550+ pretty much got screwed. Trying to make up 18% loss is anything but easy in this environment.
Just wait for the experts to start their downgrades from buy to hold. MSM start writing articles articles about how apple is losing it’s edge, and throw this once darling company under the PR bus….
Real numbers don’t matter. It’s all in the perception…
January 24, 2013 @ 11:50 AM
AN wrote:QCOM only supply
[quote=AN]QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.[/quote]
I personally think the growth in mobile hardware is pretty much done at this point. They’ll still sell mobile devices but the growth rate in mobile hardware is going to decline going forward. Over 50% of the market that can afford a smart phone has one already. There’s not much left to wow the consumer with in mobile right now. The only big leap I see right now is power consumption. Produce a cool phone that doesn’t die after 4 hours on constant use and you might have that wow factor.
January 24, 2013 @ 12:14 PM
livinincali wrote:AN
[quote=livinincali][quote=AN]QCOM only supply modem chip to AAPL. While they supply both model and app clip to Android/Windows phones. So they make more profit per phone with either Android or Windows. With Windows, they’re the only supported chip, so if Windows takes off, it more of boon for QCOM than if iOS takes off.[/quote]
I personally think the growth in mobile hardware is pretty much done at this point. They’ll still sell mobile devices but the growth rate in mobile hardware is going to decline going forward. Over 50% of the market that can afford a smart phone has one already. There’s not much left to wow the consumer with in mobile right now. The only big leap I see right now is power consumption. Produce a cool phone that doesn’t die after 4 hours on constant use and you might have that wow factor.[/quote]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.
January 24, 2013 @ 12:34 PM
AN wrote:
China, India,
[quote=AN]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.[/quote]
How many unique mobile devices do you really need. The mobile platform at it’s core is a data consuming device. The human brain can only absorb so much content at any given time. HD streaming video on a single device is probably the maximum a human brain can absorb at any given time. If it were me I’d create one smart device whether it’s a phone or a tablet or just some smart device that has the brains and wireless components and then just create a bunch of various dumb form factors that can be used to provide input and output from that smart device.
I honestly don’t understand why you need computer and high end rf processing power in so many different mobile devices. Put it one and make various form factors that interface with it. We like the terminal server nature of the cloud but somehow need all of our hardware needs to be smart. How much would it cost to build a mobile form factor dumb touch screen.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:02 PM
livinincali wrote:AN
[quote=livinincali][quote=AN]
China, India, emerging market? Also, it’s not just about phones. What about laptop, tablet, convertible devices, smart TV, and devices that haven’t been invented yet.[/quote]
How many unique mobile devices do you really need. The mobile platform at it’s core is a data consuming device. The human brain can only absorb so much content at any given time. HD streaming video on a single device is probably the maximum a human brain can absorb at any given time. If it were me I’d create one smart device whether it’s a phone or a tablet or just some smart device that has the brains and wireless components and then just create a bunch of various dumb form factors that can be used to provide input and output from that smart device.
I honestly don’t understand why you need computer and high end rf processing power in so many different mobile devices. Put it one and make various form factors that interface with it. We like the terminal server nature of the cloud but somehow need all of our hardware needs to be smart. How much would it cost to build a mobile form factor dumb touch screen.[/quote]
Culturally phones are status symbols overseas.
So as long as the latest and greatest is out, someone will buy it.
Also, overseas, folks use the cell phone more readily to do more things than we do… Mobile payments will be huge. We’re just scratching the surface right now…
Mobile payments will evolve and demand work related to security.
And the entire egosystem will be built around that.
just one of many examples.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:02 PM
Microsoft down AH.
Microsoft down AH.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:09 PM
flu wrote:Microsoft down
[quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”
January 24, 2013 @ 2:11 PM
AN wrote:flu wrote:Microsoft
[quote=AN][quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”[/quote]
expectations just too high. I’m going to the list of other companies in which I’d be thinking will correct after earnings. I have a google calendar that I put together of all the important earnings announcement so I can make a decision few days or few hours before earnings announcement….
I’ll share if you’re interested.
January 24, 2013 @ 2:28 PM
flu wrote:AN wrote:flu
[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=flu]Microsoft down AH.[/quote]
And yet…. “When all those deferrals are factored in, Koefoed said the adjusted total of $22 billion in revenue and 81 cents a share in profit was a record for the company in any quarter.”[/quote]
expectations just too high. I’m going to the list of other companies in which I’d be thinking will correct after earnings. I have a google calendar that I put together of all the important earnings announcement so I can make a decision few days or few hours before earnings announcement….
I’ll share if you’re interested.[/quote]
Sure, share it. It’s amazing that expectation is actually high with MSFT. But I guess it’s not nearly as high as AAPL, since it’s only down 1.x%. My last post was a jab at those who say, oh look, AAPL has record earning and record profit, so buy buy buy. This is a prime example of even when you have record earning and profit, that doesn’t always mean your stock will see record prices. MSFT have have many record earning and profit over the last 10 years, yet, they’ve gone no where.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:15 PM
AN wrote:Sure, share it.
[quote=AN]Sure, share it. It’s amazing that expectation is actually high with MSFT. But I guess it’s not nearly as high as AAPL, since it’s only down 1.x%. My last post was a jab at those who say, oh look, AAPL has record earning and record profit, so buy buy buy. This is a prime example of even when you have record earning and profit, that doesn’t always mean your stock will see record prices. MSFT have have many record earning and profit over the last 10 years, yet, they’ve gone no where.[/quote]
Who is saying buy? I think what’s happened over the last few months with AAPL is institutional ownership is being cut back. It’s now down to about 67%, it was as high as 76% I think. Just about every stock fund had a significant holding in the company, even some bond funds. It was leading the market by so much, they only way any fund manager could keep pace with expectations was to be highly overweighted in it. It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:21 PM
SK in CV wrote:Who is saying
[quote=SK in CV]Who is saying buy?[/quote]You just did without actually saying “buy” in your last sentence. [quote=SK in CV]I think what’s happened over the last few months with AAPL is institutional ownership is being cut back. It’s now down to about 67%, it was as high as 76% I think. Just about every stock fund had a significant holding in the company, even some bond funds. It was leading the market by so much, they only way any fund manager could keep pace with expectations was to be highly overweighted in it. It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.[/quote]Lets revisit this thread in December and see if we’ll see $600 or more.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:27 PM
SK in CV wrote:
It’s still
[quote=SK in CV]
It’s still an extraordinarily strong company, but can no longer beat the market like it had over the 42 months ended a few months ago. I suspect that institutional ownership will continue to drop to the low 60’s, and the stock will probably split within 6 months. I’d also be pretty surprised if they don’t initiate a stock buy-back plan. They’ll get a much better return than what they’re currently getting on the >$100B in cash. By year end, it’s a $600 a share or more stock again. And it won’t be overpriced compared to the market.[/quote]
That’s what I’m thinking as well SK. I also agree that a stock buy back will make sense and a good use of their massive cash stockpile.
I’m not one of the Apple Fan Bois that are in love with it at all cost. I do think the growth rates like they were experiencing in previous years is over but man they are still making lots of cash. And although I think a big part of the company died when Jobs did, I wouldn’t count out their creativity and new product pipeline.
Anyone that’s read the Jobs biography by Isaacson knows that Jobs was relentless and a perfectionist. And I’m not sure there are many people like that out there. However, it seems like Jobs took credit for many things that Apple did even if it wasn’t exactly his idea.
I’m not pounding the table calling Apple a buy and recommending people go out and buy it but I did buy a few hundred shares today in my kids college fund account. I’d say there are far worse investments out there.
AN, man NOK is a volatile stock. Personally, I don’t really like their products but one of my friends that works with them told me their patent portfolio alone is worth a fortune. Their cash burn rate concerns me but the risk/reward ratio seems like it would be worth it.
Are you in it for the swings or a long term believer in Nokia? With today’s down draft I almost picked up a boatload today. For a relatively short-term trade. (I consider short-term a year or less).
January 24, 2013 @ 3:34 PM
earlyretirement wrote:Are you
[quote=earlyretirement]Are you in it for the swings or a long term believer in Nokia? With today’s down draft I almost picked up a boatload today. For a relatively short-term trade. (I consider short-term a year or less).[/quote]
I’m in it for a long term. Like you said, their patent portfolio is massive. But I think they have a lot of potential on the upside when/if Windows Phone takes off. I don’t think MSFT will let them die either. They actually turn a profit this last quarter. So their cash burn rate should hopefully be the thing of the past. We’ll have to wait and see.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:37 PM
AN wrote:
I’m in it for a
[quote=AN]
I’m in it for a long term. Like you said, their patent portfolio is massive. But I think they have a lot of potential on the upside when/if Windows Phone takes off. I don’t think MSFT will let them die either. They actually turn a profit this last quarter. So their cash burn rate should hopefully be the thing of the past. We’ll have to wait and see.[/quote]
What your saying is EXACTLY what my friend said. Especially about the MSFT part. I did see they turned a profit which was great. I think I’ll jump back in tomorrow. Thanks for the great posts.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:37 PM
earlyretirement wrote:
That’s
[quote=earlyretirement]
That’s what I’m thinking as well SK. I also agree that a stock buy back will make sense and a good use of their massive cash stockpile.
I’m not one of the Apple Fan Bois that are in love with it at all cost. I do think the growth rates like they were experiencing in previous years is over but man they are still making lots of cash. And although I think a big part of the company died when Jobs did, I wouldn’t count out their creativity and new product pipeline.
Anyone that’s read the Jobs biography by Isaacson knows that Jobs was relentless and a perfectionist. And I’m not sure there are many people like that out there. However, it seems like Jobs took credit for many things that Apple did even if it wasn’t exactly his idea.
I’m not pounding the table calling Apple a buy and recommending people go out and buy it but I did buy a few hundred shares today in my kids college fund account. I’d say there are far worse investments out there.
[/quote]
I’m not all that excited about buying >$400 stocks. I haven’t owned it since the early 90’s (and never owned or used any of their products), though I have picked up some good money over the last couple years with bullish put spreads. But I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have an order in for ATM jan ’14 calls at open tomorrow. We’ll revisit a year from now.
January 24, 2013 @ 3:51 PM
i love Apple, they have great
i love Apple, they have great products, but, like Sony, i doubt they can survive the loss of the visionary leader.
Apple has basically had one product that they’ve expanded, extended and taken all over. the iPod begat iTunes, begat the iPhone, begat the iPad.
Okay,
now what?
can they make a giant iPad as an iTV with a Kinect like interface?
Maybe? Will it sell?
Can they make a freewheeling style of product, that serves as an excercise center, like the Wii? maybe?
Can they make a car? Maybe?
Can they make a car dashboard insert, that serves as the entire display and controls?
Maybe.
Can they make a new type of toy like the frisbee?
Could they go broadwise? Buy up a big telecom company, and get wireassets, or wireless assets?
Could they go buy Iridium and make ubiquitous 4G, part of the apple experience?
Could they go start making appliances? The Apple Stove or the Apple Refrigerator? Sure.
How about a Apple Washing machine?
but will any of these have the margins and buzzz and demand pull of the iPod?
pat
January 24, 2013 @ 4:11 PM
“Could they go buy Iridium
“Could they go buy Iridium and make ubiquitous 4G, part of the apple experience?”
ohh Now that one has potential !!
Except they need to cope with Sat Delay.
January 24, 2013 @ 4:28 PM
Samsung!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Samsung!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well know in a few hours how much damage they really did…
Samsung posts record profit
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-posts-record-profit-000031770.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324039504578262432246509020.html
January 24, 2013 @ 5:14 PM
Delete,
Delete,
January 24, 2013 @ 5:26 PM
$8.2B in one quarter. That’s
$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.
January 24, 2013 @ 9:05 PM
AN wrote:$8.2B in one
[quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?
January 24, 2013 @ 10:45 PM
craptcha wrote:AN wrote:$8.2B
[quote=craptcha][quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?[/quote]
Rate of change? AAPL is slightly down from a year ago. Samsung on the other hand is up around 100% from a year ago. Does that mean anything to you? Or how about this: http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/25/global-mobile-phone-shipments-2012/ BTW, AAPL have to compete against Samsung and Google and Microsoft and Qualcomm combined, since Samsung does not have to invest in the OS or the eco system. While Google and Microsoft doesn’t have to invest in hardware, chips, etc. Qualcomm doesn’t have to invest in … well, you get the idea.
January 25, 2013 @ 8:14 AM
Everything will be alright.
Everything will be alright.
January 25, 2013 @ 8:45 AM
AN wrote:craptcha wrote:AN
[quote=AN][quote=craptcha][quote=AN]$8.2B in one quarter. That’s a pretty big boost to their war chest. Samsung is definitely on a roll. With that kind of profit, they sure can spend a lot on R&D.[/quote]
That’s less than 2/3 of AAPL profit for the same quarter, no?[/quote]
Rate of change? AAPL is slightly down from a year ago. Samsung on the other hand is up around 100% from a year ago. Does that mean anything to you? Or how about this: http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/25/global-mobile-phone-shipments-2012/ BTW, AAPL have to compete against Samsung and Google and Microsoft and Qualcomm combined, since Samsung does not have to invest in the OS or the eco system. While Google and Microsoft doesn’t have to invest in hardware, chips, etc. Qualcomm doesn’t have to invest in … well, you get the idea.[/quote]
Apple’s comptetion is multifold just in android alone. Because it’s a like a 8 headed monster.
Google owns the software platform, but it partners with many OEM’s to delivery the end product. We all know there is some amount of fragmentation, but it’s also true that with the more recent a android O/S have been improving unifying the experience. Just look at what’s the product portfolio is.
Galaxy Nexus(Samsung), Nexus 7 (Asus), Nexus 4(LG), Nexus 10(Samsung), and upcoming Nexus 5 and Nexus 7.5.. And that’s not counting Samsung’s other Galaxy products not specifically built for Google, not counting LG’s products not specifically built for Google, Acer, HTC, and all the other smaller players…
And the ones pushing the envelope right now are these players.
January 25, 2013 @ 9:35 AM
flu wrote:Apple’s comptetion
[quote=flu]Apple’s comptetion is multifold just in android alone. Because it’s a like a 8 headed monster.
Google owns the software platform, but it partners with many OEM’s to delivery the end product. We all know there is some amount of fragmentation, but it’s also true that with the more recent a android O/S have been improving unifying the experience. Just look at what’s the product portfolio is.
Galaxy Nexus(Samsung), Nexus 7 (Asus), Nexus 4(LG), Nexus 10(Samsung), and upcoming Nexus 5 and Nexus 7.5.. And that’s not counting Samsung’s other Galaxy products not specifically built for Google, not counting LG’s products not specifically built for Google, Acer, HTC, and all the other smaller players…
And the ones pushing the envelope right now are these players.[/quote]
Yep, I totally agree. I have a feeling we might see a repeat of Mac vs Windows again. But this time, it’s iOS vs Android vs Windows.
There’s no way Apple can keep up w/ QCOM/Samsung/Nvidia on the chip side, Samsung/Nokia/LG/Asus/etc on the devices/packaging side and Google/Microsoft on the OS/platform/ecosystem side and not bust their budget through R&D. All of these companies have their own budget for R&D and they all are massive. Add them together and Apple will have a tough time keeping up in the long run. We’ll see how it play out.
WRT the stock price, down another 2% this morning. Nearing $440 already. I’m going to get a few $300 Jan ’14 put just to put my money where my mouth is like SK.
January 25, 2013 @ 10:25 AM
Yeah, ugly action on AAPL the
Yeah, ugly action on AAPL the past two days. We’ll see how this thing plays out by the end of 2013. I picked up some NOK this morning.
January 25, 2013 @ 10:30 AM
NOK does look pretty cheap at
NOK does look pretty cheap at the moment, although I’d be concerned that even though earnings came in better than expected yesterday the stock is still down today. Guess maybe that’s because they suspended their dividend?
Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.
January 25, 2013 @ 10:46 AM
SmellsFeeshy wrote:Jan 14 $5
[quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.
January 25, 2013 @ 10:54 AM
AN wrote:SmellsFeeshy
[quote=AN][quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.[/quote]
How much are you paying for fees? Unless you are trading very small amounts frequently I don’t see how the fees could be that significant.
January 25, 2013 @ 11:16 AM
SmellsFeeshy wrote:AN
[quote=SmellsFeeshy][quote=AN][quote=SmellsFeeshy]Jan 14 $5 calls might be a good play though.[/quote]
I don’t know about you, but I rather play options on high priced stocks like AAPL/GOOG/CMG/etc. Basically anything that’s >$250-300/share and have high volatility. For stocks like NOK at $5, I would spend way too much on fees.[/quote]
How much are you paying for fees? Unless you are trading very small amounts frequently I don’t see how the fees could be that significant.[/quote]
Here’s an example: with NOK $4 Jan ’14 call, your cost is $100/contract. So, if you want to spend $8k, you need 80 contracts. My fee would be $10 + $1.50 * 80 = $130 in fee. So $260 to buy then sell. If the stock went up 20% at today’s price, the price is only $5.05. So your profit is ~$7700. Now, if you buy 1 GOOG $755 Jan ’14 call, my cost would be $11.50. If GOOG goes up 10%, I’m already up ~$7500. If GOOG goes up 20% like NOK, I’d be up ~$15k. You might argue that NOK is more likely to go up 20% than GOOG going up 20%, sure. But what about NOK going up 20% vs GOOG going up 10%? What about NOK and GOOG stays flat? So, I see a lot more risk with NOK’s option due to fee. Now, if you buy the actual stock, then I’m all for it, since the cost would be the same.
January 25, 2013 @ 6:43 AM
AN, I’ve re-entered the
AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…
January 25, 2013 @ 8:17 AM
With ATT and Verizon buying
With ATT and Verizon buying up spectrum,might be a good time to short Sprint. I’ve never shorted a stock, but if I were to I would definitely be shorting this one.
January 25, 2013 @ 10:34 AM
moneymaker wrote:With ATT and
[quote=moneymaker]With ATT and Verizon buying up spectrum,might be a good time to short Sprint. I’ve never shorted a stock, but if I were to I would definitely be shorting this one.[/quote]
You know that Softbank is buying out sprint right? They are paying something like $7/share for a part of Sprint shares in a tender offer.
January 25, 2013 @ 9:29 AM
flu wrote:AN, I’ve re-entered
[quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………
January 25, 2013 @ 11:18 AM
desmond wrote:flu wrote:AN,
[quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..
January 25, 2013 @ 2:09 PM
flu wrote:desmond wrote:flu
[quote=flu][quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..[/quote]
Just yankin you, …..it hit a long time high today……………..go BMY…
January 25, 2013 @ 2:37 PM
desmond wrote:flu
[quote=desmond][quote=flu][quote=desmond][quote=flu]AN, I’ve re-entered the markets today ( a little)…
No new technology play for me right now.
I picked up Bristol-Myer Squibb @ 35.90 and slightly riskier Medtronic @ 46.13 as a long(er) term play, both with dividend reinvestment in my IRA….We’ll see how this shakes out in a year or longer…[/quote]
fluington,
Congrats on the BMY purchase or maybe you just like being kicked in the head with a steel-toe boot, I have been a long tortured holder for decades of BMY, long before the Zimmer spinnoff. The recent runnup has been nice, not sure why????? Good luck you will need it……………[/quote]
Why would you say that… I don’t know 4% dividends on a dead moving stock is still better then -15%+ say Apple or a peer. I don’t see many tech companies rising too much in the short term…Many NXPI and ARM but that’s about it…..[/quote]
Just yankin you, …..it hit a long time high today……………..go BMY…[/quote]
Trust me you want me to buy this… Because the moment I sell, it will triple… I’ll let you know beforehand…. Then you can send me my commission check.