Pretty much every well-to-do zipcode has this demographic problem. It’s not isolated to Scripps Ranch. For example, 92127 – home of 4S Ranch, Del Sur, and Santaluz – has a very similar shift despite all the new homes:
So it’s not sound analysis on the part of ocrenter to say that there will be a sudden massive influx of bussed kids to Scripps Ranch High but not other places. All these neighborhoods have a demographic dip for people in their 30’s.
In fact, the real reasons are twofold. First, there was a massive dip in births in the 70’s due to the economic recession. This is very well-documented, and is commonly referred to as the “baby bust”:
Second, the point about housing still being unaffordable is still true. I make over 200k a year, but according to traditional calculators I can only afford a home up to 1M (and that’s with 200k cash down). Any place for us to move up would be a stretch. Which means many people are still stretching.
There’s still a lot of air to be let out of this balloon.
