Do I under stand you correctly? You are saying SFR’s are overpriced by 45%-50% but will only go down 12% and that non-crash will be done in a few years? Absolutely not.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear, or if you are unable to see the numbers on the charts. The 12% was above and beyond what one might expect when one assumes a 4% growth rate as opposed to the 6% rate I originally showed.
I’ll try again … If one assumes that the ~6% growth rate (which tracks the bottom of the data over the last 30 years), you would end up with ~22% or so decline.
If you assume a 4% rate with a base year of 1998, the result is 12% less than that implied by the 6% growth rate.
Of course the data could overshoot.
My opinion is that inflation will generally be higher over the next decade than the previous one, so I expect the end result to be closer to the 6% line than the 4% line. Just my opinion.
I’ll explain the other ways I have come to this same conclusion in another post.
