I’m not exactly sure where in RB our original poster bought, but one of the questions she was asking was where her house would be had the price structure not blown up. As near as I can figure out, Rich’s long 50-year average price trendline intersects with pricing in late 1998 or so.
I took the liberty of looking up a few recent sales in RB in the $575,000 range, and it appears those homes were selling in the $225,000 ranges in late 1998.
It’s kind of a meaningless number, though, because the market will always swing high and swing low – those extremes are what create that trendline.
I think the better question would be where the market would have peaked out this time had this peak topped out equal to the one in 1990; that +25% mark occurred in late 2002 at about $400k or so. That means the following correction would have already bottomed out at about $300k or so in order to maintain the same trendline.
