I believe that John McCain may well have won the election if he had picked a more suitable VP candidate. People chose the “least objectionable” team (or simply declined to cast a vote), and hoped for the best.
Populations estimates:
July 2004 293,655,404
July 2008 303,947,734
Growth in pop 10,292,330 3.505%
Seems to me like Obama was a big factor in voter turnout.
Source:
Population: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004986.html
There was no total for 2004 so my spreadsheet total numbers differ from the source totals… but you get the idea. Had I used the source totals, population growth would be slightly lower.
Brian, I wasn’t trying to say that the 2008 race was in any way close. And looking over my post, I realize that I worded it awkwardly.
What I was trying to say is that the period prior to the election was tumultuous. There were many voters who remained undecided until late in the election period.
While Obama had a comfortable (8+ points in Gallup polls) margin over McCain for the month prior to the election, it was much closer in mid-August. McCain was within 1 or 2 points of Obama until just prior to the Palin nomination, and then pulled ahead until mid-September, when the initial shine started to wear off Ms. Palin. His poll numbers never recovered after that.
I can’t speak for California, but there were certainly doubts about Obama’s lack of experience being voiced by voters who were firmly liberal in their views. At this point in time, it is extremely difficult to speculate on “what could have happened”, but I believe that the race would have been much closer in the campaign’s last two months if McCain had chosen more prudently.
I liked the image that Obama presented, but I was concerned about his lack of experience at the national political level. I didn’t make a final decision until just prior to the election, even though I was certain that I could not vote for a McCain-Palin ticket. Given McCain’s age and health history, I believed that Palin’s chances of ascending to the Presidency were significant. I may have had concerns about Obama’s lack of experience, but I had none about his intelligence: he had it in obviously abundant supply. Palin had neither, and the prospect of hearing her say “I betcha” in response to the Chief Justice’s recitation of the Oath of Office was too much to me to handle.
My concerns about Obama remain: while he is a highly educated and intelligent man, I believe that his responses to some situations, and lack thereof in others, are the result of a lack of political maturity. It’s not improving over time, and it may be worsening. But he’s my President, and I support him as such.
