It’s probably fair to say that the median is going to be a lagging indicator because although all the different market segments are interconnected those connections are not rigid. The market as a whole doesn’t move in a monolithic lock-step fashion, but in bits and pieces, in fits and starts.

We’re so busy watching the leading indicators that the published lagging indicators seem hopelessly outdated. This is why we tell Piggingtonians not to worry about missing the bottom because they’ll see it coming long before it actually hits. The newspapers will be saying that it’s still getting worse and we’ll be saying that the time is ripe for a good move.