When I bought it, it would have been slightly cashflow positive from a rental standpoint, after a 20% down payment and including HOA, taxes, etc.

That’s the basis of cashflow investing. If the cashflow isn’t covering your expenses, there isn’t any 12% return.

If it isn’t a rental, there isn’t any 12% return unless you happen into a bubble market.

The key, whether you refi or not, is that someone else actually covers all the expenses of the leverage.

Since you said freakishly overvalued, I suspect you realize just how far most ‘homes’ need to fall to be cashflow positive on their induced expenses.

I suspect it will go there again, I’m not sure how quickly, nor am sure just how much psychological and economic carnage is going to result from that kind of landing.