“Another point here is that 10 years ago your same arguments would have prevented the construction of San Elijo Hills, 4 S Ranch, Del Sur. Well they were built and people are paying 700K a pop. In 10 or 20 years we will see new area rebuilt. Prices then will probably be a whole lot higher then they are today.”

If you’re talking 10 or 20 years, that’s a lot different than talking about the next 2-7 years. A person who can take advantage of the opportunities in the near term AND in the long term will probably do better than someone who has to wait for the long term to break even.

Dollars in the near term have a greater value than the same amount in future dollars.

This ain’t 1997, and it’s going to be a while before 1997 comes around again. You might want to keep in mind that people who bought in 1989 didn’t come back into the black until 1998 or so. In the interim, they were mostly in a losing position, even if they never had to book those losses through a sale.

This brings up another point; just because a lot of the 2004-2006 buyers haven’t sold yet doesn’t mean their assets haven’t lost them money – they just haven’t realized their losses by booking them as a sale.