Good for you for passing. At the end of the day, you need to be happy in your home. Especially with the possibility of declining value which would keep you “stuck” there for longer than you might prefer if you don’t initially buy your “dream house.”
You’re right that no one ever knows, but the consensus around here is that the drops will be greater than 5% for only a couple of years. If you look at the early 90s to 96, prices dropped substantially. If you can stand seeing the value of your home decrease year after year (because after all, you’ll still be enjoying your home), buy, but just be aware of the possiblility (no crystal balls, right?) of future depreciation.
Yes, MB is a great school district, but with the $ that you’re saving, perhaps you can put your kids in a good private school in the interim, or if they’re young enough, the elementary schools may be just fine.
As a side note, I watched my neighbor put his two bed condo on the market at $569K and it’s just sitting… I think that the price has been reduced twice, but there seems to be no traction. It would be odd to see someone living in the EXACT same situation as me and paying MUCH, MUCH more than I do for the same space (I pay $1550 in rent).
