temecula is NOT the same place it was 10 years ago. I’m not saying it has an economy as diverse and vibrant as San Diego…and it will always have a large proportrion of people who are commuting to San diego or OC jobs… but it is a much much larger place than it was a decade ago.
the standard infrastructure needed to support all the homes/people is one factor. there must be more police stations = more cops. more firestatiosn – more fireman. there is a great big new courthouse up near the airport = judges/attorneys/jail staff/other county workers. there are more little medical clinics/ dentists/etc to cater to the people who live here.
yes a lot of the jobs are probably retail…and pay garbage…but there are also probably quite a few “good” jobs that have been added over the years… i have no idea what the ratio of local workers vs. commuters are…but there must be more local people than 10 years ago.
that’s not to say that the housing crash here won’t happen…but to say that Temecula is mostly commuters who will leave when prices get cheaper in SD is perhaps a bit simplistic. one would need to know the real numbers.
i live/work in temecula. i’ve got a good local job. my job only was created here in the past 5 years due to all the growth. if SD prices went down, i would NOT move down there and then commute to work up here. i like it here, and i like living close to work and being able to go home at lunch to see the family.
it would be nice to see the housing values come crashing down… but part o fme wonders if we will see bigger price crashes in the “nasty” parts of the inland empire – lke Perris, hemet, San jacinto…and the areas like Redhawk, North Temecula near the Mall, and nice parts of Murrieta may be more insulated.
isn’t it true that the more desirable areas may be hit less – partly b/c the owners thee tend on average to be more affluent…so tey are less likely to have ARMS that are resetting… and b/c the area itself is in more demand relative to the crummy areas where low income people took out toxic loans and now will lose their homes?
i’ve seen foreclosures in nice areas, i’m not saying it won’t happen..but i wonder if the foreclosures and real price hits will be concentrated more in the crappy areas…. it will still happen in the nicer spots, but to less of a degree???