Interest rates and exchange rates will remain more or less the same throughout the year. The Fed will not rise the rate before the end of 2010. Nevertheless, there won’t be any significant inflation (no more than 4% YoY as measured by CPI).
Nationwide unemployment rate will decline somewhat and end the year between 8% and 9%.
Oil prices will be more or less flat and end the year between 60/barrel and 100/barrel.
Gold will enter a period of steady decline and end the year between $800 and $1000 per ounce.
Stock market will be somewhat bullish, but Dow will not surpass 14,000.
The healthcare bill will pass and anyone who tries to campaign on the possibility to repeal the healthcare reform will be soundly beaten. Nevertheless, Democrats’ advantage in the Senate will shrink from 60 seats to 55, give or take. Lieberman will be booted out of the Senate.
San Diego house prices will be flat in the lower tiers. There will be a mild rebound during spring months but not enough to bring lower-tier HPI above 180. Top tier will remain weak.
There’s a 50:50 chance that I’ll give up on San Diego’s perfect climate and accept a job as a quant at Goldman-Sachs.
