Concho, you are correct – also I was new in town, unemployed, “grad school, nudge nudge wink wink” in Fall 2003 and could only have bought with a liar loan using unemployment checks to pay the note. As it turned out, our market has doubled since then, so the liar loan approach would have worked out. 20/20 hindsight, I know. Now I have a great job, but I can’t stomach paying $450K for a place that sold for $180K in 2002.

The rented condo I live in is worth $50K less now than it was when I moved in two years ago, but still $130K more than when I was making the rent/buy decision (not on this property) in Fall 2003.

I think the odds are for LV to fall some more from here, but a return to late 2003 prices (another 40% down from March 2007) seems unlikely. It will be interesting to see if tightened lending crashes LV. Rents are way up, and sellers aren’t lowering their asking prices at all. Time will tell.