We can agree to disagree. If as your name implies you are in the biz then I’d guess you also have a vested interest in hoping I’m not correct. Sorry if I’m being blunt or assuming anything here. More importantly I think we’ll be seeing a few dead cat bounces as we trend down further. If these people who are buying lately haven’t had buyer’s remorse after today they never will. They are stuck in these homes for a decade. I’m sticking by what I said before; “who would buy a home right now that they can get 25-50% cheaper in a year or two? Imagine how much that home has to go back up for them to gain a decent amount of equity. If the market drops 25% you’re talking about a 75% rise in prices for them to build up 50% in equity. People couldn’t get into these homes without some shenanigans so you think they will later?
I don’t see that valuation happening at today’s prices. It will happen again in 15-20 years when all the 15-18 year olds out there have forgotten about this correction. Who do you think (aside from flippers and speculators) has been the largest segment of buyers with low FICO scores? It’s not the 50-60 yr. old with 100-150k in the bank and 50-75 k left on his/her mortgage or paid off for that matter. There is plenty more carnage to come – especially after Black Monday.
There will be A LOT of people out of work soon if they aren’t already. Think I’m exagerrating? Check out this link and see where New Century and Fremont have abruptly closed without warning in many locations and both could be closed for good by Friday:
Rate and term Refi
Looking for a fixed 5,7,10,30 (would like 30) IO or PI
Stated
SFR-San Diego, Ca OO
Loan amount- $741,640
CLTV-100% (any combo 80/20, 90/10, no MI if possible)
FICO-mid 680
Dti-40%
5 months reserves
Good trades
No BK, FC, lates
SD, this just the second leg down. It is going to cut across a wide employment swath in all sectors who are affiliated with housing/real estate. The “R” word has been floated by Greenspan and Bernanke has no choice for now but to paint a rosier picture in the position he’s in. Dubya would go ballistic if he heard him agree with big Al. The PSYCHOLOGICAL shift is on my friend whether we like it or not.
