I agree with CaRenter
“IMHO, they won’t publicize the renewal until the first tax credit expires. If they pre-announced it, people would stop buying right now in anticipation of a bigger, better credit next year.”

Since sports analogies seem to work around here. I would call it a game of momentum. They have so much momentum right now! Just look at the charts Rich posted.
If they announced it right now, the momentum would switch to the other team. The Govt has scored touch down after touch down this year. They are not going to hand over the ball just yet. Especially when everyone is putting in their highest and best to close before Nov 30th.