zk, it’s not possible to leave Iraq to the Iraqis – much of the violence is instigated by Iran, which you agree is a powerful and dangerous theocracy.

You had cited the level of violence in Iraq as evidence that I am wrong to think the war could head off a larger conflict; to then ask why I’m worried about a larger conflict given the sectarian violence is incoherent. The best case result from the invasion would be to help Iraq become a beachhead of liberalism in the Arab world, something that could be a source of Muslim pride without being a threat to us. That was the President’s goal, and it’s a laudable one. It’s much better than the second-best and increasingly likely outcome of the invasion, which is a regional proxy war between Muslim powers.

But that second-best case is still preferable to the world as it would look without an attempt to reform the Muslim world. Iran would still have its nuclear program, and that would push Saddam to restart his own. Blunting that threat would require maintaining both the crumbling sanctions regime and the military presence in Arabia, both of which were considered intolerable provocations by Islamists. In that scenario, the best case would be a regional war much larger than the violence we see now. The worst case would be the same worst case we face now.

You want to focus on al Qaeda? They’re in Iraq. If you think fighting us in Iraq pays off for them in recruitment and training opportunities, what do you think beating us in Iraq would do for them? If we stay there, al Qaeda gets to choose between sacrificing lots of their people in attacks on the best military in the world or burning through their goodwill in the region by killing Muslim civilians. We leave, and they can train for attacks on American civilians in peace.

Finally, if you’re going to criticize others for making statements without evidence, you should avoid claims about things like Sistani’s pre-invasion importance and the religiosity of Iraqi Shia unless you have a summer home in Najaf you haven’t told us about.