Seems we get a thread on this every couple of weeks or so. It would be interesting to go back and see who’s predictions were right, and who’s were way off.

I don’t think anyone knows enough to make a very solid prediction about this, and I certainly wouldn’t trust the consensus view you hear on MSM, but I’ll venture out on a couple of points:

1) The fed will not raise rates before the end of the year. More than likely, Bernanke will be out of a job before the fed raises rates.

2) Realization that the economy is not recovering will occur this fall, and that will slow any inflation expectations. (And thus help to keep rates lower)

3) If China, India or any of the other countries that hold so many dollars are shown to be seriously dropping dollars, all bets are off, and long term interest rates go through the roof.