[quote=4plexowner]1. what about the fact that 25% of our workforce (Baby Boomers) are going to try to retire over the next ten years?

many of them will try to downsize by selling their houses

ie, more shadow inventory

[/quote]

On the downsizing at retirement thing. I don’t think it happens quite that way. I live in a 45 year old neighborhood – on my street there has been *some* turnover as the people who bought in the 60’s got older… but to a large extent they’ve sold to their children. (And I’m one of those adult children who bought from the parents.) Just on my block – we have 6 households that grew up, moved away, came back and bought their parents house when the parents wanted to downsize. We have additional households where the original owners are STILL in the house. A few have taken in boarders. I would estimate that over half of our block is retired – and bought more than 25 years ago. Especially in the single story homes.

These retired folks have paid off their houses, they’ve locked in their prop 13 rate. No reason to move till they’re ready for a nursing home or cemetary.