sdr, you are at heart a guy who hopes that prices will not fall too much, and I am at heart a gal who believes we are headed for a great housing crash leading to big recession, possibly a recession. So we are wearing different colored glasses, that’s for sure. I believe that in 2008, 3/4 of all realtors will be in the unemployment line, and their homes will be on the foreclosure block. Yours possibly included.
You say you know people with neg-am loans who are paying off their principal. Give me some examples, and explain why they got a neg-am loan, how much interest they pay, and how much principal. Why did they get a neg-am loan if they plan on paying principal. Why pay principal and not all the interest? And here’s the biggie question: Why are those people not refinancing into a fixed rate loan right about now?
SoCalMtgGuy was a witness to this big credit bubble, and to dismiss him is an an “inexperienced professional” just because you don’t like what he says, is unprofessional of you. As a realtor, you’ve got a fiduciary duty to understand this market, whether you like it or not. I like to align myself with intelligent, insightful, honest people, and I don’t care if they’ve worked in their industry for 3 years or 25. I learned more from Bob Casagrand about real estate earlier this year, than I ever learned from you. I’ve also learned a lot from Jim Klinge. Recently, I had the honor of meeting a realtor at the piggington meet-up, who’s been in the business since the 1970’s, who is very smart, a go-getter, intuitive, and very interesting. A savvy investor too. Her stories from the last downturn make me shudder. When I showed her my graph projecting the bottom for this market, she said I was too optimistic. When someone who’s been through 3 market cycles says this is going to be the worst downturn ever, I sit up and listen.
As far as bringing data, that is Rich’s quote, not mine. In context, his intent was to leave out the RE spin, and to focus on the truth about this market. His use of data strips away the BS that real estate only goes up, that our economy is diverse, etc. As we know, the data can also be misleading. Who actually believes the latest OFHEO index which shows prices in SD are down less than 1%, or the median was still rising until a few months ago, or that inflation is under 3%? The data often lags, or is tortured.
As far as my website, I am not holding myself out to be an economist, but you are welcome to come and visit. And if you pay the subscription fee, you can see my data and forecast and question it, and have another outlet for your “doggie doo doo” juvenile jokes.
What’s your new business? Something related to foreclosures, would be a smart move!
