Reagan pulled together the big tent and managed to hold the center. Ever since the tent has been more and more right leaning as center leaning and moderate Republicans gradually over the years leave the GOP.
The center became more and more wary of voting and registering Republican because that also meant having to say yes to Christian Right agendas. The Palin pick was the most obvious evidence that the soul of the GOP is now firmly in the Christian Right. McCain was simply unable to get the GOP grassroot to give support until he picked someone like Palin. This demonstrates that moderates like McCain can no longer mobilize large number of moderate Republicans for the simple reason that there are no longer a sizable moderate Republican base to go to.
So where did they go? independent and Dem. I may be wrong about this but I think independent registrations are now the highest ever in history. Both Clinton and Obama made sure during their campaigns they appeared as “centrists” and sure enough they both captured the center and won.
if former and current moderate Republicans split and form a new party catering to the center, I think that party will do very well. For the moderates to try to recapture the party may simply result in the same persistent battle between the moderate and religious right wings of the party again. And that will only favor continued Dem dominance.
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You may be right.
Like I have said before, third parties do not have a positive impact in the short term in US politics unless a major party is liquidating (eg Lincoln’s post-Whig Republicans).
This may be the start of such a liquidation. Hell, I might even join a new centrist party. And I consider myself a liberal.
The other possibility is that this schism (or whatever it is), will have the effect of empowering the party by forcing members to focus on efficacy over ideology.
I think the more pragmatic members (eg: Newt) are more likely to bring this about.
