The key phrase in describing 1991 prices is “prior peak”, which for that particular cycle means those prices were already 25% above the long term trend.

I think price retraction to 1998 might be a little too agressive but then again it’s hard to say if this downswing will indeed stop short as the bulls are telling us, contract right to the long term trendline, or overcorrect past the trendline into “undervalued” territory. A correction to 1998 pricing would represent an overcorrection that corresponds to other overcorrections following the spikes in the past, so although I think it might be a bit much this time it could turn out to be dead on. There’s more precedent for it happening that way than not.

The last time our prices intersected the long term trendline was in late 2000 as it was on its way up, and prior to that it intersected in 1993 on the downside of the prior cycle.