Interesting discussion. I feel that being comfortable with a “buy range” or overall bottoming out or leveling off is what people should try to predict.
Here’s why – they need to know how much cash they should have on hand. I think that’s going to be the toughest part of this downturn. Getting cash.
Laugh if you want, say “duh, that’s the toughest part of ANY recession.” But i want you to think about this:
Credit Debt = all time high
Home Ownership = all time high
Cost of Living = all time high
Consumer Expectations = all time high
Graduate Debt = all time high
The institutional lenders are going to get their asses kicked by the international markets and the government regulators (while losing their tail on hard money RE investments too). At the same time the interest rates will begin to rise again to stave off inflation. All the while, people own more homes, have more debt and are less liquid than they were during the last recession.
(BTW If you want a real comparison to what we have now i.e. gas and economic climate, international relations, etc. Look to the 70’s and see what sort of mess we became when the gvmt. got it’s hands involved. which consumers will demand again)
CIF as my pops calls it Cash In Fist – will rule the day.
