When trying to determine relative value and where one would enter the market again, it seems to me that precision is quite important. If my estimates have an uncertainty in a range of +/- 30%, and my estimate for the nominal price drop is 30%, precision is important.

Otherwise, I generally agree with the initial analysis.

Anyway, here’s my latest numbers …
Based my analysis, I have concluded that the median price of a home in San Diego will bottom out to 50% of peak prices (with a margin of error of +/-175K).